Melbourne in recent years has endured just over eight days a year on average above 35 degrees. By 2050,that could rise to between 13 and 21 days of extreme heat.
To get a sense of the possible climate changes for Victoria's capital,the CSIRO suggests Melburnians take a look north to Wangaratta.
Bureau of Meteorology data shows the average maximum temperature in Melbourne was about 19.9 degrees over 160 years to 2015,compared to 22.2 degrees for Wangaratta. However,the CSIRO used more recent data to draw the comparison between the two cities.
The daily maximum temperature in the Wangaratta region is expected to increase by as much as 1.9 degrees by the 2030s.
The new CSIRO projections,commissioned by the Victorian government,are based on the likely changes under high global carbon emissions. The long-term projected temperatures are lower under medium emissions.
“The new high-resolution simulations suggest that increases in average temperature can be higher than previously estimated,especially in spring,” the CSIRO report says.