“Last September we had more than 6600 overdue for surgery following Delta. With elective surgery delayed again,we estimate hundreds more have been added to those lists. There will be more semi-urgent cases needing attention,from hip replacements,hernia and kidney stone surgeries.”

Mount Druitt GP Kean-Seng Lim said lengthy elective surgery waitlists “are just the tip of the iceberg,” with many more patients skipping potentially life-saving check-ups.

“We are seeing delays right across the board,” Dr Lim said. “Knee and hip replacements have been bumped back. Patients needing regular surveillance colonoscopies and endoscopies to monitor for bowel cancers are being postponed.”

Dr Lim warns these deferrals could mean missing vital early chances to detect and treat cancers.

“I’ve also had patients who have needed to be seen by hospital-run liver and diabetes clinics who have been delayed because doctors have been reassigned to COVID-19 patients wards. These patients often end up in emergency departments,” he said.

Dr Mukherjee said cancelling elective surgery during any future pandemic waves will be “immensely difficult” and states will need a sustained policy for dealing with backlogs.

“We can’t manage to provide healthcare sustainably just by outsourcing it to the private system,”she said,noting federal government support will be needed to help an exhausted workforce.

COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations are falling in NSW,with 2578 COVID-19 patients in NSW hospitals on Thursday,including 160 in intensive care. However,doctors predict even when restrictions ease it will take months - even years - for the system to recover.

An email from private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care to its doctors,seen by theHerald,said it would “continue to lobby” NSW Health to be able to return to full capacity,and it understood the 75 per cent cap could be exceeded in hospitals which were also performing public patient operations.

“We welcome the return of non-urgent elective surgery in NSW ...[it] is great news for patients who can now finally make plans to undergo their procedures,which can be life-changing and even life-saving in many circumstances,” a spokesperson said.

Healthscope,which operates hospitals including Norwest Private,Prince of Wales Private and Campbelltown Private,said it believed elective surgery shutdowns “particularly in private hospitals” should “no longer be used as a lever in our COVID response”.

“The elective surgery ban effectively denies care to thousands of patients who are just as entitled as COVID patients to access treatment. Our doctors have advised these bans result in their patients being distressed and their health needlessly deteriorating when there is capacity in the system for their surgery to proceed.”

On January 10,most category 2 and 3 surgery was suspended in NSW public and private hospitals to free staff and bed space for increased numbers of COVID-19 patients.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet this week said he was committed to a staged return of non-elective surgery,with positive signs that coronavirus hospitalisations were stabilising.

“The reintroduction of non-urgent elective surgery will be done in a phased manner to balance the ongoing potential need for extra capacity in our hospitals and the need for people in NSW to access their elective surgeries as quickly as possible,” he said.

It comes as the possibility of a statewide nurses strike has emerged after the union recommended a vote on a stoppage.

It is the first time in almost 10 years the union has asked nurses across 200 branches to vote on taking one-day statewide industrial action. The vote raises the possibility that the NSW health system could see mass staff walkouts across multiple hospitals.

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