As the federal budget reveals population growth will depend more on migration than births over coming years,despite both sides of politics promising to,Taylor admitted the nation’s falling fertility levels were of growing importance to all economic policymakers.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has also ruled out reintroducing a baby bonus.Shutterstock
This that Treasurer Jim Chalmers believed it would be better if birth rates were higher,while acknowledging that issues including the cost of raising a child had made it much more difficult for people to either start a family or have another baby.
Australia’s population climbed 2.5 per cent to,driven overwhelmingly by a spike in immigration. But natural population growth – births minus deaths – is falling.
Natural population growth is 14 per cent lower than 2019,while the fertility rate is down almost 20 per cent since the global financial crisis in 2008.
In,the government slightly downgraded its assumptions on the fertility rate and life expectancy for both men and women after a jump in death rates to record levels.
Taylor said his attitude towards children was a “revealed preference”. He is a father of four.
He said a clear issue was trying to give prospective parents an option when it came to having children,but replicating the was not on the agenda.
“There are issues about making it less hard for women,especially for professional women,to have a family and a successful career,” Taylor told this masthead.
“It’s a really difficult question,and we’re always looking at ways to make it easier for people to have that choice.”
Shadow treasurer and father of four Angus Taylor says his attitude towards children is a “revealed preference”.Alex Ellinghausen
Chalmers has also ruled out reintroducing a baby bonus.
Both sides of politics have supported substantial reforms to childcare as one way to make it easier for parents to work while having children.
The government increased the childcare subsidy in its first budget in 2022 at a cost of almost $5 billion while commissioning an Australian Competition and Consumer Commission inquiry into the sector.
Taylor said while childcare was an important issue for families,it was still unclear how much of an impact it was having on family sizes and choices.
“Childcare is a big deal,but how much impact it has? I’m not sure we know what the answer is,” he said.
According to research published by medical journal in March,Australia’s fertility rate – the average number of children a woman can be expected to have in her lifetime – will drop from about 1.65 to 1.45 by 2050 and to 1.32 by 2100. The replacement fertility rate for a population is 2.1.
In this month’s budget,the current fertility rate was estimated at 1.64 and forecast to fall to 1.63 by 2027-28. Both are slightly lower than last year’s budget forecasts.
Life expectancies were also downgraded. Australian men are now projected to live for 81.6 years while women have an expected life expectancy of 85.9 years. Both are 0.4 years lower than last year’s budget,with Treasury putting the blame down to a spike in deaths due to COVID-19.
Despite the poorer outcomes for births and deaths,Australia’s population is now forecast to reach 28.2 million by the end of 2026 – 203,000 more than had been expected in the 2023-24 budget.
Most of the extra residents are expected to reside in NSW,Victoria,Queensland and Western Australia. Fewer people are expected to leave NSW and Victoria for other parts of the country,with both states also forecast to be home to the majority of new immigrants.
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