Sydney hasn’t been hot for nearly a year. That may change this week

For nearly a year,Sydney has failed to top 30 degrees,but that may change this week.

Maximum temperatures have stayed below 30 degrees for the past 327 days,a mild streak only bested by the 339-day record set in 1883.

Swimmers and sunbakers make the most of warming weather at Marrinawi Cove,at the north-east corner of Barangaroo Reserve.

Swimmers and sunbakers make the most of warming weather at Marrinawi Cove,at the north-east corner of Barangaroo Reserve.Oscar Colman

However,a change is looming for this Goldilocks summer run,with a maximum 30 degrees forecast for Wednesday and the possibility it could go higher. If the daytime temperature reaches 35 degrees,it becomesofficially hot – the first time since Australia Day 2021.

Weather bureau senior meteorologist Dean Narramore said cloud and rainfall had stopped most of the summer heat as wind direction,predominantly easterlies coming off the ocean brought moist,cool air.

“The Sydney area gets all its heat from the westerly winds in summer dragging continental air that’s hot towards the coast,” Narramore said. “There was a big lack of that last summer and it’s been similar for this spring and early summer as well.

“We had all that rain and flooding and cool conditions during last spring into late 2022. Then December was pretty cold with lots of southerly winds. And now the easterly and south-easterly winds have returned for much of January so far.

“It’s a lack of westerly or north-westerly winds that we had in 2019 and 2020 when we had weeks and weeks of those winds,and that was why we had the fires,the heat and the 45- and 48-degree days in Penrith.”

He said January and February are generally the hottest months of the year in Sydney,so there is “a chance we will break 30 degrees”.

“Next Wednesday we are forecasting 30 degrees,but that’s dependent on cloud cover and the easterly sea breeze might come in early and cap that temperature,” he said.

Temperatures are forecast in the mid-20s for most of the coming week,but southerly winds are expected to return later next week.

“There is a chance we could see those westerly and north-westerly winds return in February and possibly into March before we start cooling down for the year,” Narramore said.

Thelong-term average top temperature for Sydney next week is 25.7 degrees.

The bureau ispredicting a 54 per cent chance of an unusually cool February,with average top temperatures of 24.9 degrees and just a 4 per cent chance of unusually warm average temperatures of 28.8 degrees or more for the month.

Across western Sydney,record-low spring average daily maximum temperatures were recorded at Richmond RAAF (23.1 degrees),Penrith Lakes (23.6),Canterbury Park Racecourse (21.8),and the Sydney International Equestrian Centre at Horsley Park was a full degree cooler than average at 22 degrees,the bureaureported.

With average top temperatures half a degree warmer than the 1961-1990 average,2022 was Australia’sequal-22nd-warmest year on record since 1910.

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Nigel Gladstone is an investigative journalist at The Sydney Morning Herald.

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