On the other hand,Barnaby Joyce’s return to the National Party leadership in late June has been less of a barrier to net zero than first feared. Joyce continues to play a constructive role in the negotiations,according to Liberal sources.
Morrison’s caution is nonetheless understandable. He has a back catalogue of his own scepticism to contend with. Remember,he took a lump of coal into Federal Parliament as treasurer in February 2017,a stunt that happened to coincide with Trump’s first days in office? And he claimed the Liberal leadership in August the following year after a party-room revolt over Malcolm Turnbull’s national energy guarantee. At the 2019 election,Morrison claimed Labor’s electric car policy would “end the weekend”.
If,and when,he announces the government’s conversion to net zero,Morrison will need to explain to his voters on the centre right who want action,and to those on the hard right who still see global heating as hoax,that his new position isn’t just a political fix to help him secure another term in office.
Surely,the best way to demonstrate he is serious is to take his policy to Glasgow? But the PM tells us he is reluctant to go to the meeting himself. He says his first responsibility is to sell the policy “to Australians,not to people overseas,at overseas conferences”.
This doesn’t make much diplomatic sense. If we are finally putting the past dozen years of leadership chaos and policy gridlock behind us,why wouldn’t Morrison want to receive the applause on the international stage? What better way to sell his policy than to be pictured with world leaders taking climate change seriously?
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There are two theories doing the rounds in Canberra. One,from sources sympathetic to Morrison,is that he doesn’t want to spook the Nationals by putting his attendance ahead of their agreement. The other is that Morrison is more concerned about the G20 meeting in Rome at the end of this month,which precedes the so-called COP26 in Glasgow.
On this theory,Morrison is wary of the multiple cold shoulders awaiting him at the G20. French President Emmanuel Macron still won’t take his call. President Biden won’t want to be embracing Morrison while he is still repairing his own relationship with Macron. As the Axios website reported this week:“Biden and his aides have acknowledged they were mistaken to leave it to the Australians to tell the French they were killing their submarine deal and negotiating with the Americans and Brits instead.” And Chinese President Xi Jinping has not spoken to Morrison in more than a year.
Has there been a more awkward moment for an Australian leader? Here’s the irony though. Before the French subs row,Morrison revelled in the backslaps from fellow leaders for Australia’s COVID-19 response.
Let’s assume Morrison can thread every needle between now and polling day – net zero,a safe reopening for the economy,and a re-election platform that preserves a majority for his government. That would give him a mandate for climate change reform. But what is to stop him adopting a passive position after the election,especially if his margin remains tight?
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A narrow re-election won’t resolve the split between the cities and regions on climate change;it would merely delay the reckoning.
Morrison has taken the slow and low roads to net zero. He has treated climate change as an internal argument,presuming the public is happy to accept its resolution without needing the detail. He continues to bend facts to claim Australia is ahead of the pack when the world is,in fact,waiting for us to stop whingeing.
At no point has he taken the Australian people into his confidence. Until he does,he won’t have genuine authority to undertake what will be our biggest reform since the Hawke-Keating government opened the economy in the 1980s.
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