“This is a promising moment,” Gates told the virtual summit dressed as always in a business shirt and v-neck knit. “Climate activists – and young people especially – are bringing amazing energy and attention to this issue. They are demanding action,and rightly so.”
He stressed that climate change was “an incredibly complex issue” that would need billions of dollars in investment becauseusing today’s technology it would be “virtually impossible to meet our goals”.
Just like Morrison,the Gates view has critics too. There are many climate campaigners,some of whom call for an end to economic growth,who reject the notion that there is any room for political pragmatism.
Two pages of the book – 196 and 197 – leapt out to Morrison. He underlined key passages with a black pen.
“What we can do – andneed to do – in the next 10 years is adopt the policies that will put us on a path to deep decarbonisation by 2050,” Gates wrote.
“Why? Because the things we’d do to get small reductions by 2030 are radically different from the things we’d do to get to zero by 2050.”
Morrison’s slow but deliberate shift over the past 18 months on climate has not been influenced by Gates alone. The first inspiration came last year from readingDaniel Yergin’sThe New Map,a book that outlines how the role of energy in climate change is shaping geopolitical discussions,challenging industries and lifestyles and accelerating a new energy revolution – the quest for renewables. At its heart is the new geopolitics of net-zero carbon and the relationship between the US and China.
It’s partly why Morrison outlined net zero as an issue of national security last week,telling his colleagues that Australia needed the Western alliance “now more than ever” and it would be “drawing down on a lot of historical capital” if it did not make the commitment.
Getting To Zero - the Quarterly Essay by former chief scientist Alan Finkel – reinforced Morrison’s thinking,as did David Attenborough’sA Life on Our Planet.They all shaped his increasing view that the time frame of 2050 was integral.
Attenborough,a British broadcaster and natural historian,might be surprised to learn this after he criticised “people in Australia” this week who’d claimed climate change-driven disasters like fires were “one-off” events.
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Ahead of the Glasgow climate summit he said nations had a “moral responsibility” to take swift action to ensure “really catastrophic” outcomes were not realised.
“And every day that goes by in which we don’t do something about it is a day wasted and things are being made worse,” Attenborough told the BBC this week.
When asked at Tuesday’s press conference why he would not increase the nation’s 2030 emissions reductions target Morrison told reporters he was keeping faith with Australian voters. And it was back to Gates again.
“It is the wrong plan for Australia. And let me tell you why. And none other than Bill Gates has expressed his view,as have many others,” he said.
He said the same to the ABC’s Sabra Lane on Wednesday when she pointed out many climate scientists say it’s important to go harder on cutting emissions by 2030.
“I don’t share that view. And you know,people like Bill Gates agree with me,” Morrison replied.
The Gates book sets a goal to stop the 51 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases currently being added to the atmosphere every year. In a clear-eyed fashion – without dwelling on doomsday scenarios for the planet – he argues to do so would require changes to transport,cement and steel production,food and agriculture.
Gates believes firstly that rich nations like Australia need to develop and deploy breakthrough technologies that allow them to eliminate emissions throughout the physical economy.
Secondly,he argues,they need to tap the power of markets to fund and deploy these innovations – for example,by finding creative ways to finance technologies,and by levelling the playing field,so they can compete with fossil fuels.
Third,he says,governments and corporations need to adopt policies that will make it faster and cheaper to make the transition,and leaders will need to reward those who take difficult steps.
Some of this the Morrison government is yet to embrace,leaving room forthe prime minister’s critics that he has just cherry-picked the easy parts.
Gates says nuclear energy is key as is widespread investment in transmission lines and even lab-grown meat.
Former British prime minister Gordon Brown is also a fan of the Gates book but acknowledges it does not have all the answers. While Gates is modest enough to say he doesn’t have a solution to the politics of climate change,Brown argued in the Guardian this year that the issue has been continually torpedoed by “powerful vested interests”,or “undermined by weak and incompetent political leaderships that make commitments they do not honour”.
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Tony Wood,the director of the energy program at Grattan Institute,spent 14 years working at Origin Energy in senior executive roles and five years as the program director of Clean Energy Projects at the Clinton Foundation. He this week wrote while the government’s net zero policy was welcomed it was not a policy platform to hit the emissions reduction target. He has also read the Gates book.
“I was therefore intrigued that the PM was quoting him since it was Gates who said we need technology and policies and financial markets,” he said this week.
“I thought that section of the book was pretty good,while the only thing that really had me read it most of the way through was the identity of the author. There wasn’t much new or interesting beyond the fact that it was a Gates view. Of itself the fact that the PM read the book is a testament to that same rationale.”
Morrison is now prepared to talk the talk on net zero. Walking the walk will remain a bigger test.
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