The return to a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase means easterly trade winds will draw up cooler water in the east while warm waters build up to Australia’s north. The winds loop around,across the ocean surface and then up into higher levels of the atmosphere and then back around again in a cycle.
Weatherzone meteorologist Felix Levesque said other climate drivers which bring wetter conditions,such as the negative Indian Ocean Dipole,the positive Southern Annular Mode and the Madden-Julian Oscillation all look likely to ease into the new year.
“It feels like the end is in sight,but with that being said,I wouldn’t be too surprised if the year ends with a bang,” he said. “El Nino is more likely to be the next climate driver after three-back-to-back La Ninas,so we will return to a neutral phase for a bit and then El Nino could return over the next few seasons.”
Loading
But Levesque added that forecasts had a wide range of possibilities and the climate drivers causing the wet weather could linger longer than current models indicated.
NSW SES spokesperson Greg Nash said the agency welcomed any news of a return to normal summer conditions but added flooding risk remains high. For example,in Cooma 100mm of rain was previously needed for flooding to hit moderate levels. On Tuesday,all it took was 30mm of rain for the town to reach that level.
Flood-affected communities are now turning their effort toward the mammoth clean-up effort following days of rain,with more than 130 NSW SES warnings remaining in place throughout the state.