The London-based political consultancy Sanctuary Counsel assesses that the aggregate population of the more than which will hold elections in the year ahead is over 4 billion. Of course,a large proportion are minors. Not all adults will vote. Some will merely be sham elections,such as the presidential election in Russia on March 15. But most will be a genuine act of public choice.
Illustration:Aresna Villaneuva
Imperfect though political systems may be,this year upwards of 2 billion people will queue at polling stations to exercise their right to choose their leaders – democracy in its most elemental form. Commentators who prematurely predict the decline of democracy should reflect that in 2024,more people vote than have ever done in a single year.
The year of democracy kicks off in our region in a fortnight’s time,with the presidential election in Taiwan on January 13. While the major parties,the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT),both formally adopt a position of maintaining the status quo in relation to mainland China,the DPP’s candidate,Lai Ching-te,takes a much more robust view of Taiwanese sovereignty than his KMT rival Hou Yu-ih. If,as current polling suggests,Lai wins,the result will do nothing to ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
A month later,some 200 million Indonesians will go to the polls on February 14. The election will see the retirement of the term-limited President Joko Widodo. The front-runner is the current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto,making his third attempt at the presidency. Although previously Widodo’s political rival – he was his opponent at the 2014 and 2019 elections – this time he is making his run with the outgoing president’s endorsement and with Widodo’s 36-year-old son as his running mate. Although his election would represent continuity of the Indonesian political establishment,Prabowo is considered more right-wing and populist than Widodo.
The other big election in our region is that for the Indian parliament (the Lok Sabha),due to be held before June 16,which will probably take place in April or May. The expectation is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party will retain control,perhaps in a newly configured coalition. As with Indonesia,while this would represent political continuity,it would also be seen as a victory for nationalism and populism – in Modi’s case,the Hindu nationalist policies that he has pursued determinedly and often ruthlessly.
Among other G20 nations,South Korea goes to the polls in April,South Africa in May and Mexico in June.
Although none of the bigger continental European democracies have elections in 2024,elections will take place for the European Parliament on June 9. With the recent success of right-wing nationalist parties in many EU nations – most notably in the hitherto impeccably liberal Netherlands – the EU elections will be an important indicator of whether Europe at large is likely to follow the trend evident from Hungary,Italy and the Netherlands. They will also be a rehearsal for national elections to come – most importantly in Germany next year.
The back end of the year will see elections in Australia’s two most important strategic partners,the United Kingdom and the US. It is likely that the two great Atlantic English-speaking democracies will move in opposite directions.
While the UK election does not need to be held until early next year,since nobody wants a winter election the most likely window is October. More than a year into his prime ministership,Rishi Sunak has failed to narrow the Labour Party’s long-established 20-plus-point lead. He has proven to be (as I predicted in this column over a year ago) a bloodless technocrat with no appeal beyond his own base. As electoral slaughter beckons,more and more Conservatives are regretting their decision not to persevere with Boris Johnson who,despite his indiscipline and picaresque ways,was the last Tory leader able to make a connection with working-class Britons.
Labour leader Keir Starmer,meanwhile,has acquired a new nickname – Steer Calmer – a spoonerism which captures his steady,dour,risk-averse approach. There is a story doing the rounds in London Labour circles about a conversation Tony Blair had in the early 1990s with George Stephanopoulos,whom older readers may remember as Bill Clinton’s hip,20-something press spokesman. Blair,recently elected Labour leader,asked Stephanopoulos’ advice on how a centre-left party could win from opposition. The reply? “You can never be right-wing enough.” Apocryphal or not,it is advice Starmer appears to have embraced with enthusiasm,denouncing the Tories for high taxes and accepting offshore processing (although not the unsuccessful Rwanda policy). Sound familiar?
And then there is the big one across the pond on November 5. I’m not making any predictions,although readers cannot have failed to notice that the more the American political and legal system throws at Donald Trump,the stronger he seems to get.
Unlike most of the world,Australia’s 2024 promises to be a relatively election-free oasis,with no federal election due and,with one qualification,no state elections either. The big exception is (as usual) Queensland,which votes on October 26.
And so,compulsive election watchers can expect plenty of entertainment in the year ahead,culminating in late October/early November with two hugely consequential elections on either side of the Atlantic,and an early electoral cyclone north of the Tweed.
George Brandis is a former high commissioner to the UK,and a former Liberal senator and federal attorney-general. He is now a professor in the practice of national security at the ANU’s National Security College.
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