The Premier versus the pandemic:Omicron tests the incurable optimist

In early December,two months into his premiership,Dominic Perrottet was bursting with grand plans for the year ahead.

In an ambitious address to theNational Press Club on December 8,pitched as the “future of federation in a post-COVID world”,he suggested “now was the right time” to reflect on lessons from the pandemic,including the need for a wholesale makeover of Commonwealth-state relations which he would take it upon himself to drive.

Too soon:in an ambitious address to the National Press Club on December 8,Dominic Perrottet suggested “now was the right time” to reflect on lessons from the pandemic.

Too soon:in an ambitious address to the National Press Club on December 8,Dominic Perrottet suggested “now was the right time” to reflect on lessons from the pandemic.Janie Barrett

It was quintessential Perrottet:bold to the point of brashness,rooted in boundless optimism,and driven by the restless energy of a younger man in a hurry.

Missing from the presentation was a clear-eyed acknowledgment that the pandemic could have many more lessons in store. And that the cardinal lesson – the one now being re-learnt – was to avoid underestimating what the virus could do next.

By the time he’d delivered that address,news had already landed of the first recorded community transmission here of the super-contagious Omicron variant.

Three-and-a-half weeks later the state has topped 21,000 cases daily,with tens of thousands of Sydneysiders spendingmiserable hours in search of a COVID test,businesses and vital services struggling to fill the gaps left by furloughed staff,and an anxious populace racing to find bookings for booster shots,as people try to absorb the latest twists and turns in testing and isolation protocols.

Determined to be the leader who delivered on the long-proffered promise of freedom after the winter and spring lockdown,Perrottet and his team held out against mounting concern from public health specialists in mid-December that it was not the time to relax mask-wearing,QR check-ins and capacity limits in pubs and restaurants.

Many ministers were convinced the state’s high double vaccination rate would be enough of a bulwark against the new variant. But others,among them Treasurer Matt Kean,Attorney-General Mark Speakman and Nationals leader Paul Toole,are understood to have had concerns.

Behind the scenes,public health officials were seething with frustration. Not only was Omicron more transmissible than earlier variants,it was also more vaccine-resistant,even in double-dosed individuals. Administering third booster doses had suddenly taken on a whole new urgency.

Delayed response:Perrottet with his health minister Brad Hazzard and Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant at Royal North Shore Hospital on Wednesday.

Delayed response:Perrottet with his health minister Brad Hazzard and Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant at Royal North Shore Hospital on Wednesday.James Brickwood

Perrottet relented two days before Christmas,reluctantly bringing back some restrictions and citing the fact that he’d always been prepared to “tailor” the government’s response to changing circumstances.

Should he have changed his mind sooner? He doesn’t concede so.

“No,I stand by it[the decision to lift restrictions on December 15],” he tells theHerald. “It had been made previously as part of our road map. I believe it was the right decision at the time. And one week after that it was the right decision to mandate masks over the summer break.[By then] we were facing an increasingly furloughed health workforce,that’s what convinced me to[re]introduce restrictions. When circumstances change and facts change,so does our response.”

Privately,he’d also changed his own plans. He cancelled his planned holiday on his sister’s property in regional NSW,canned an arrangement to have deputy Paul Toole act as premier,and instead commuted to and from Sydney for several days from Wagga via plane. He is now back in Sydney.

Speaking with theHerald about the year ahead,Perrottet remains adamant people don’t want to be told by government “what to do every single day”. It must fall to elected representatives,not “the public service”,to weigh up other factors such as mental health and economic priorities.

“There are a lot of commentators that seem to think that it’s the public service that should be making the decisions. That’s just not the Westminster system,” he says.

Monday,November 29:NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has said he is confident in the state's response to the new COVID-19 variant due to the state's high vaccination rate,adding that NSW residents are going to have a 'bright summer'.

Liberal insiders defended the belated backflip,with one arguing it had been “a big call for Dom to change course”.

“He is quick to admit fault and take responsibility to fix it,” this senior Liberal says. “He will read the currents and change where he needs to …[while] Gladys would simply never concede,and her performance at the ICAC demonstrates that.”

But there’s also an awareness that the government is now politically vulnerable should the Omicron wave – despite repeated assurances about its lower severity – overwhelm the health system.

A number of epidemiologists remain concerned that the most recent policy changes (adopted by national cabinet on Thursday) are,in the words of one,“now model-free after all the previous emphasis on sticking to models”.

Omicron or not,Perrottet appears determined to keep his eyes on an agenda larger than managing the pandemic. Channelling one of his occasional mentors,former Labor prime minister Paul Keating,Perrottet talks of wanting to take NSW to “new heights”,and “the next level”,though he’s at pains to state he’s building on the “strong foundations” laid down by coalition predecessors.

“What’s going to differentiate NSW from the pack is that we’ve got to get through the pandemic,deal with the here and now,but at the same time set up for future success,” he tells theHerald. “Not just for us but for generations to come.

“It’s better to be criticised for moving forward ... than becoming paralysed by the status quo.”

He nominates housing affordability as a key challenge – “Australia can’t be a country where we can’t house our children” – and another as education reform,“really ensuring that our kids get the best start to life”.

With the state election looming in March 2023,he’s got 15 months to convince the electorate that his turn as leader is more than a surface makeover of what is now an 11-year-old government.

His reshuffle of a fortnight ago,bringing in nine new faces and shaking up the existing frontbench with a slice and dice of some key portfolios,is part of that rebranding. Succeeding in securing a fourth term for the coalition,against a slowly reviving Labor opposition under Chris Minns,would be an unprecedented achievement.

Perrottet’s style represents a marked departure from the caution of his predecessor,which used to frustrate some of her ministers. “Dom has got off to an absolute flyer,he just got out of the blocks so fast,” says Kean. “He has been able to define himself on his own terms before Labor got a chance to define him on theirs.”

Dominic Perrottet’s style represents a marked departure from the caution of his predecessor,Gladys Berejiklian.

Dominic Perrottet’s style represents a marked departure from the caution of his predecessor,Gladys Berejiklian.Kate Geraghty

Berejiklian effectively pitched herself as “the mother of the state,in what was a very difficult time”,according to another insider,whereas Perrottet “[sees the job] as understanding where people are at,but leading them to where we need to go”.

A senior Liberal says “the day NSW becomes beige is the day we surrender”.

Perrottet talks up the state’s national leadership role,insisting that “the foundations of our state are incredibly strong;when other states have struggled,NSW has stood tall. And that kept people in jobs,it kept the economy humming along”.

That bit of chest-beating may not sit so well with Victorians though Perrottet has a close relationship with Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas,and is on good terms with Premier Dan Andrews.

In private,some senior NSW Liberals are less gung-ho than their leader. “I think the government’s fortunes will rise and fall as a result of COVID,” says one.

“Gladys handled COVID better than anyone else in the world,and Dom will be measured against that. … the virus is still going to create a lot of disruption in society. What impact will Omicron have on the economy? Will people go to restaurants or stay at home? Will parents not want to work in the city,will people send kids to school? These are the kinds of issues the government is going to have to navigate.”

Another tells theHerald,“it’s going to be a very unsettled year generally. That’s probably a different view to a lot of my colleagues,but I think things are going to be tough”.

Perrottet could find himself experiencing something he has rarely encountered in his 39 years – a major setback.

Perrottet could find himself experiencing something he has rarely encountered in his 39 years – a major setback.Rhett Wyman

Perrottet,says this senior insider,could find himself experiencing something he has rarely,if ever,encountered in his 39 years – a major setback (though theicare workers compensation debacle which unfurled on his watch would have been enough to stall the career of a lesser talent).

“He’s not[been] blooded by the experience of adversity. As you get older,things inevitably go wrong.”

Inside government ranks there is broad appreciation of his extraordinary drive and what one MP calls his desire to be “transformative”.

A senior Liberal says:“He’s there to get stuff done. He’s very much like Mike Baird – impatient for reform,charismatic. But where Mike came across as a bit more progressive and sporty,Dom is a bit more religious and bookish.”

Perrottet himself shuns labels. “I believe in conserving what is good and what works and innovating everything else so our society can progress,” he says. “People can call it progressive,conservative – it doesn’t bother me.”

Deputy Liberal leader Stuart Ayres,holding key portfolios of investment,enterprise,western Sydney and tourism,accepts that “2022 is going to be heavily influenced by COVID and the challenge for the government will be taking the community on a journey as we transition into living with the virus ... That steady approach is about combating the sometimes hysterical fear that’s been transmitted into the community”.

A critical test for Perrottet will be replicating the electoral appeal Berejiklian had forwomen in the 35- to 50-year age group - a “secret weapon” for the government in the 2019 election,according to one party hardhead.

“Dom thinks he’s serious about the women issue but he’s hamstrung partly because he comes from the right. So people around him don’t see it. He is much more progressive than his tribe but his tribe holds him back,” this source claims.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet pictured during a COVID-19 update in November.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet pictured during a COVID-19 update in November.Kate Geraghty

He’ll be put to the test in at least four by-elections to be held in February,following the departure of Berejikilian from the seat of Willoughby,veteran Andrew Constance from Bega,former Nationals leader John Barilaro from Monaro and former Labor leader Jodi McKay from Strathfield.

Liberal Melanie Gibbons has also flagged leaving state parliament to run for a federal seat,which would trigger a fifth by-election. A key challenge for Perrottet will be avoiding slipping further into minority government.

The Morrison government’s fate will also shape political currents in NSW. One senior NSW Liberal believes a Labor win in Canberra could boost the state coalition’s chances of re-election.

“Then we get to differentiate against Albanese,” the source says. “Whereas if Morrison gets back,just like we get to ride on their success,we have to own their failures.”

Colleagues believe the Prime Minister and the Premier are putting on a “united front” for public consumption but that deep animosity continues to run between Perrottet and Morrison’s right-hand man in NSW,federal immigration minister Alex Hawke.

Perrottet is adamant he’ll spend the coming year “focused on governance,not campaigning”.

He’s pledged there will be no pork barrelling:“it should have no place in a modern government”.

He wantsministers to try new ways of doing things. “I want my ministers to ask the question ‘why’ – why our government services are run the way they are,why schools run from 9 to 3. There are so many government structures in place that were built for a bygone area ... and we’ve got to look at better ways of making sure that in a modern world,we have modern services that meet families where they are.”

Like Morrison,Albanese and Minns,he too will be heavily focused on western Sydney over the next year. “Middle Australia doesn’t have a lobby group,” Perrottet says. “I’m going to be a strong advocate for families and middle Australia and the heart of middle Australia is in western Sydney”.

Generational shift:Perrottet with Stuart Ayres and Treasurer Matt Kean. Ayres is the Minister for Enterprise,Investment and Trade,for Tourism and Sport,and for Western Sydney.

Generational shift:Perrottet with Stuart Ayres and Treasurer Matt Kean. Ayres is the Minister for Enterprise,Investment and Trade,for Tourism and Sport,and for Western Sydney.Renee Nowytarger

Stuart Ayres’ base in Penrith is seen as a critical beachhead from which to battle Labor for the soul of the city’s west.

But Labor has rich soil to till there as well,playing up the “tale of two cities” narrative that the west and south-west bore a disproportionate share of the pain of lockdown. Transport woes,rising tolls and unease about privatisation under the label of “asset recycling” are also political opportunities for Labor.

There’s no doubting the marked generational shift that has taken place across the political spectrum in NSW in the last few months,with Perrottet at 39,Ayres at 41,Kean at 40 and Minns at 42.

Ayres says “the two people who’ll be contesting the premiership of NSW are basically the same age. But one of them has been a minister for eight years and the other hasn’t”.

It’s a line that cuts both ways,as Perrottet has to carry his share of the baggage,as well as the wins of those years. The wild card hanging over 2022 will remain the pandemic. “We will stand strong”,Perrottet declared on New Year’s Eve. It will become clear soon enough how far the Premier has to temper his irrepressible optimism in the face of the latest challenge from the virus.

The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories,analysis and insights.Sign up here.

Deborah Snow is associate editor and special writer at The Sydney Morning Herald.

Lucy Cormack is a journalist for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age,based in Dubai.

Most Viewed in National