COVID peak to put more in hospital and last longer,new modelling shows

More than 1600 Queenslanders will be in hospital at the height of the current COVID-19 wave,according to modelling released by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

The modelling also shows the current wave is expected to last longer than first thought,and is still almost a month away from its peak.

New Queensland Health modelling shows the third Omicron wave will peak a month later than first thought and will see more than 1600 people in hospital at once.

New Queensland Health modelling shows the third Omicron wave will peak a month later than first thought and will see more than 1600 people in hospital at once.Queensland Government

Palaszczuk released the modelling during state budget estimates hearings on Tuesday,after initiallypromising to release it last week.

“I’m advised that in the current third wave,hospitalisations are likely to peak at around 1660 cases,” she said. “This is close to 600 more than we currently have,and that peak is expected to be in late August.

“Thankfully,it does not predict an increase in patients in intensive care.”

Earlier modelling suggested the peak would come around now and would see about 1000 people in hospital at one time,but cases have already exceeded that prediction.

The predicted peak would be significantly higher than the previous peak of people in hospital during the first wave in January,when 928 people were in hospital with COVID-19.

In daily figures on Tuesday,Queensland recorded 21 new deaths from the virus,with 1123 sufferers in hospital,31 of whom were in the ICU.

The premier said an additional 47 people were in hospital with influenza,putting extra pressure on the healthcare system.

She again urged people,especially those aged over 65,to wear masks in public places and to make sure they were up to date with their COVID boosters.

“This is very serious. We know this is going to be our largest peak,” she said. “So I’m urging Queenslanders,when indoors,where possible,please wear a mask.

“It doesn’t take long to go and get that fourth booster. It is absolutely,absolutely critical.”

The state now has 66,569 active COVID-19 cases,although experts have said the actual figure is probably a lot higher because of the relaxing of testing arrangements and the reliance on home RATs.

The premierlater tweeted that extra beds were being opened to help meet the projected demand.

In addition,the Queensland Ambulance Service coordination hub was being scaled up,more health staff were being moved to frontline positions,and virtual care models were being expanded to reduce pressure on emergency departments.

Thousands of health staff are off sick,which Kim Hansen of the Australian Medical Association Queensland said was adding to the pressure on hospitals.

“This is the toughest[wave] yet,” she told ABC radio Brisbane last week.

“The numbers are pretty huge,and we’ve got influenza on top of that.”

Stuart Layt covers health,science and technology for the Brisbane Times.

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