Shock unemployment fall risks delaying interest rate cuts

One of the biggest monthly falls in unemployment in more than 20 years has cast doubt on economists’ hopes of a winter interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.7 per cent last month after about 116,000 people gained jobs,far above expert expectations of 40,000 more people in work.

About 116,000 workers gained jobs in February,Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show.

About 116,000 workers gained jobs in February,Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show.Wayne Taylor

It was the largest monthly fall in unemployment outside the pandemic since February 2002.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures also show hours worked increased by 2.8 per cent in February as more people started or returned to work after the summer break.

Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke said the data showed the government’s plan to ensure more people had access to secure jobs was working,noting that 56 per cent of the new jobs were full-time.

“As these industrial relations laws have taken effect,we have not seen a loss of Australian jobs,but we have seen more people in work,we have continued to see more people in secure work,” he said on Thursday.

“We have,at the same time as inflation is moderating,seen real wages over the last three quarters start to rise again.”

Opposition employment and workplace relations spokeswoman Michaelia Cash said while the Coalition would always welcome lower unemployment and more jobs,the data was not all rosy.

“Unfortunately,Australians are still dealing with a cost-of-living crisis under Prime Minister Albanese,” she said.

“Almost 1 million Australians are now working second or third jobs. Since the election,the number of multiple job holders has increased by more than 100,000 people.”

Economists said the February figures were volatile but,even taking a longer view of the data,the labour market remained strong,which could delay any interest rate cut until September at the earliest.

Financial markets priced in a rate cut for August after Tuesday’s RBA board statement dropped an explicit warning that more rises might be needed to curb inflation.

Betashares chief economist David Bassanese said the bounce in employment meant it was hard to conclude that the jobs market had weakened since theReserve Bank’s last rate rise in November.

In trend terms,the unemployment rate remained at 3.8 per cent for the sixth month in a row.

Australia's unemployment rate has fallen sharply to 3.7 per cent,a large drop from last month's figure of 4.1 per cent.

“Along with the decline in unemployment back to below 4 per cent,today’s result will greatly reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank to signal rate cuts anytime soon,” he said.

EY senior economist Paula Gadsby said the jobs figures justified the RBA board’s cautious approach this week,when it said it was“not ruling anything in or out” for future rate moves.

“The first-quarter[inflation] data out next month and the March labour market data will be important releases for the board ahead of their next meeting,” she said.

“As the Reserve Bank has been careful to remind us this week,the fight against inflation is far from over.”

But the recent fall in unemployment does not mean the jobs market will remain this tight into 2025.

AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said job vacancies and advertisements had fallen,and increases in hours worked had slowed in trend terms. She expects unemployment to reach 4 to 4.5 per cent by the end of the year.

“Based on the leading indicators of jobs growth,we think the labour market will deteriorate further after the seasonal noise settles and put pressure on consumer incomes,” she said.

KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said the labour market slowdown would be gradual.

“Today’s data does not change our view that the RBA has completed its tightening cycle as inflation in Australia is expected to continue to fall towards the target band,” he said.

“However,a rate cut is likely to be delayed as the RBA will definitely want to see a better balance between demand and supply.”

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Rachel Clun is an economics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age,based at Parliament House in Canberra.

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