The long slide in Labor support has put the government on course for a calamity unless it can assure voters it has a fix on the cost of living.
Yes,many voters still expect Anthony Albanese to defeat Peter Dutton despite the government’s slump in the polls. Asked who they think will win,rather than who they want to succeed,40 per cent name Labor and 31 per cent name the Coalition. This is a measure of the “vibe” in the community,echoed across the political class.
But this finding offers no real comfort to the prime minister and his colleagues. Less than one year ago,60 per cent thought Labor would win the next election. Only 17 per cent thought the Coalition could succeed.
So the old assumption about a Labor victory is well and truly out of date. And that applies to the idea of a minority government on a narrow margin. Labor and the Coalition are on 50 per cent each in two-party terms in the latest Resolve Political Monitor. Neither side has the edge.
Albanese began this year with big policy decisions that set an agenda for voters. Federal cabinet decided on an overhaul of the stage 3 tax cuts,gaining quick support in the community,and unveiled a “made in Australia” pitch for jobs. Neither has lifted Labor’s fortunes,at least so far.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at a press conference in Mackay on Monday.Dominic Lorrimer
The drift away from Labor began in the second half of last year and has continued in the first months of this year.
The scale of this shift is clear. The Freshwater survey inThe Australian Financial Review also showed Labor and the Coalition on 50 per cent each in two-party terms. inThe Australian this week finds the gap has narrowed to 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition.
There are differences in these polls. Newspoll allows respondents to be unsure about their primary vote and then removes the “uncommitted” cohort from the final count. Its two-party result is based on preference flows at the last election. The Resolve Political Monitor requires all respondents to cast a primary vote,as they do on a ballot paper,and its estimate of the two-party outcome is based on what voters say about their preferences,rather than the outcome at the last election.
There are competing views about polling methods,but the big message is the trend.
One thing should be clear to Labor after the failure of the Voice referendum last year:if the trend is going against you,do not respond by denying the trend.
Australians backed Albanese strongly after he won power almost two years ago,but they are not so sure these days about his leadership and solutions – especially on the economy. The Resolve Political Monitor finds this by asking voters to express their views in their own words.
“For the first time in my life,I don’t know who to support,” one voter said in the latest survey. Another put things this way:“Australia is up in the air on so many things right now. I’ve got to wait and see.” A third was gloomy about the government:“Labor are making a lot of mistakes. They’re not listening.”
What is the problem? “It depends on the economy,” said another voter. “I’m not sure we’re going to be in positive territory soon.” Other respondents said they had lost faith in the government. Some contrasted the great promise of the Labor victory with the tough economic times and uncertain future.
Labor is losing ground with voters on key policies,even as it tries so hard to go on the offensive with the “made in Australia” agenda.
Asked to name the best side to manage the economy,38 per cent of voters back Dutton and the Coalition in the latest survey,while 27 per cent back Albanese and Labor. The government led on this for months,up to last July,and has lost every Resolve survey since.
Asked to name the better leader and party to manage national security,40 per cent name Dutton and the Coalition,compared with 28 per cent who back Albanese and Labor. This has been unchanged in broad terms so far this year,despite the government’s big commitment on defence last week.
On jobs and wages,however,37 per cent favour Labor and 31 per cent prefer the Coalition. This is a key area for the government when the argument over real wage growth is vital to the contest on the cost of living. When the question is about who is best to manage industrial relations,however,Labor and the Coalition receive 31 per cent support each.
Asked to name the best side to manage immigration and refugees,36 per cent back Dutton and the Coalition while only 25 per cent name Albanese and Labor. This has not changed much over the course of the year so far.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton addresses members of the Jewish community at St Kilda Synagogue in Melbourne on Friday.Eddie Jim
The swing toward the Coalition has certainly punctured the “vibe” about a Labor victory. At the same time,however,it suggests a “vibe” about the Coalition. The truth is that Dutton has gained ground in the polls without having a policy answer for Australians.
Dutton uses political rhetoric to signal to voters that he wants a tougher policy on migration,a lower outcome on population,a harder line on immigration detainees,a bigger ambition for defence,a better future on energy bills and a more conservative approach to the debates that are fraying the nation’s social cohesion.
How,exactly,would he do all this? That is anybody’s guess. The Coalition remains an economic policy vacuum and looks like it will postpone a big reveal on nuclear energy policy. This is the crucial caveat on the polling:it is only a measure of Dutton’s supportbefore he tells Australians what he actually plans to do if he wins.
If there is a “hot take” on these numbers,it is that the government will have to use the May 14 budget to turn things around. The reality,of course,is that federal budgets rarely deliver a big polling boost to governments. If the government is to find a way out of this slump,it will take months of policy work and a great deal of luck with economic conditions.
But there is no denying the trend. And the trend is utterly at odds with what many voters assume about the next election. Australians are less confident about the future. They see a world of problems and are no longer sure that Albanese has the solutions.
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