The people whose life choices will shape Australia for the next decade

One baby,or two? It’s a tough decision for many,and a major topic of conversation among mothers groups.

Ashlee Douglas,mother of eight-month-old Lewis,says all the mothers in her group are debating the size of their families.

Ashlee Douglas says plenty of other mothers are also tossing up whether to have a second baby.

Ashlee Douglas says plenty of other mothers are also tossing up whether to have a second baby.Supplied

“A lot of mums are saying the same thing,‘I don’t reckon I’ll have another’,” she said.

It’s discussions like this that demographers are watching closely as they plot out what Australia could look like in a decade’s time.

The latest report from the government’s Centre for Population,released in full on Friday,predicts a future with an ageing population and a sluggish birth rate after the first years of the pandemic arrested the nation’s momentum.

These are the demographic trends that will shape Australia’s future.

We’ll keep having fewer babies

Despite the bump in the birth rate after the introduction of then-treasurerPeter Costello’s baby bonus,Australia’s fertility rate has been on the decline since the 1970s.

There was atemporary increase in the fertility rate to 1.66 births per woman in 2021 as people who had delayed conception in the uncertain early days of the pandemic started their families,but by 2030,the fertility rate will be back to 1.62 births per woman.

Douglas said she and her husband were unsure about having a second child.

“I always thought I’d have two children but as time goes on,you can’t help but think nothing’s getting better,” she said.

Cost of living is front of mind,especially the cost of childcare. On the other hand,she’d like a sibling for Lewis.

“Until he’s closer to two,I don’t think I’ll make up my mind one way or the other. Things can change,” she said.

Dr Liz Allen,a demographer at the Australian National University,said the government needs to do more through “procreation policies” if it wants to boost the fertility rate. Those policies include greater gender equality,housing affordability,improving job security and even addressing climate change.

“We’ve not seen those four elements required to have that boost in births beyond the falling fertility,” she told ABC’s RN Breakfast on Friday.

The average Australian will be 40

The combination of longer lives and fewer births has pushed the average age up from just under 37 in 2008-09 to 38.6 last financial year. By 2032-33,the median age will be 40.1.

Sam Johnson will be 40 in a decade. He spent his 20s striving to build his career and now works as a transport planner for governments in Asia and the Pacific.

Sam Johnson believes the future will be bright.

Sam Johnson believes the future will be bright.Nikki Short

In his next decade,he wants to focus on building relationships. By 40,he hopes he has a family.

“I’d like to be a role model and a rock to that family,that’s a core ability that 40 year olds should have,” he said. “I feel like you have to have more responsibility for your community and your family.”

As for what the country will look like in a decade’s time,Johnson hopes the government does more on climate change. But overall,he says Australians will have it pretty good.

“People can be a bit pessimistic about the future,but I think it’s going to be pretty great,” he said.

Migration will keep us younger for longer

Without migration,the average Australian will be even older still. Projections from the report show the average age would rise to 46.6 by 2060-61 if there was no migration.

If the country gets 235,000 migrants a year (the report’s baseline projection) the average age will rise to 42.8 over the same period.

Kirill Kliavin is one of those migrants. After finishing an applied mathematics course in his home city of Odesa,Ukraine,he wanted to study in an English-speaking country abroad,and friends had told him that the lifestyle in Melbourne was unbeatable.

He enrolled in a Master of Computer Science at RMIT,but a part-time job with a digital design agency sealed the deal.

“I didn’t fly with the thought that I would stay here forever,but it wasn’t crossed out of my mind completely,” he said.

Kirill Kliavin,originally from Ukraine,is part of a wave of skilled migrants who will be key to Melbourne’s economy in the next decade.

Kirill Kliavin,originally from Ukraine,is part of a wave of skilled migrants who will be key to Melbourne’s economy in the next decade.Penny Stephens

Kliavin graduated from RMIT in 2013,gained citizenship in 2017 and co-founded a law technology company called Josef the same year. Now an employer himself,he said IT companies happily hired migrants with the right skills.

“I’m the luckiest person because demand is high[for IT workers],jobs are there,” he said.

Sydney won’t be the growth capital of the country

Normal interstate patterns of migration were upset in the earlier years of the pandemic. But now with the end of border closures,Australians are again on the move.

While Melbourne will overtake Sydney as Australia’s biggest city,the pace of regional growth will outstrip the major capital cities into the future.

Hannah Goh gets ready to head to Inverell,in the Northern Tablelands of NSW,to begin her career as an occupational therapist.

Hannah Goh gets ready to head to Inverell,in the Northern Tablelands of NSW,to begin her career as an occupational therapist.Rhett Wyman

It was a last-minute placement in the flood-stricken Northern Rivers region last year that convinced occupational therapy graduate Hannah Goh to start her career in the regions.

The former University of Sydney student loved it so much that she decided to begin her career in Inverell,in the Northern Tablelands of NSW,where she will move at the end of January.

Despite her family ties to Sydney,Goh said she could see herself staying in the regions for a long time.

“Obviously,it’s really hard to buy and live in Sydney as well,” she said.

Bridgette Engeler,an entrepreneurship and innovation lecturer at Swinburne University,said that although an increasing number of people — including herself — were moving to regional cities,it was too soon to know how remote work trends would play out in the long term.

“The reality is,not everything is going to be remote,” she said. “It comes from people who are probably in positions of privilege and can afford to make changes,but not everyone’s going to be in that position.”

Engeler said the decreasing affordability of the major cities and increasing economic and lifestyle opportunities in the regions would likely attract more people to smaller cities such as Ballarat,where she now lives since relocating from Melbourne in 2020.

“Work is part of life,rather than it being the opposite of life,” she said.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news,views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley.Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

Rachel Clun is an economics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age,based at Parliament House in Canberra.

Angus Thomson is a reporter covering health at the Sydney Morning Herald.

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