The public arguments are dominated by character attacks. The campaign hides policy lethargy behind the personal animosity.
Dutton appeared to have the upper hand because the polls were running his way for the past year. Albanese has been confident in parliament this week,after several polls showed Labor was gaining ground. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been buoyant after gaining his chance to reveal a budget that predicts a rise in living standards.
The weakness in the Labor primary vote is a critical factor for Albanese because the Resolve survey published by this masthead in February found it had slumped to 25 per cent – far below the result of 32.6 per cent three years ago. The Coalition primary vote was 39 per cent,well above its result of 35.7 per cent.
There is no such thing as a uniform swing and this campaign will be a hard slog for both sides,seat by seat. Polls tighten when the real campaign begins,but campaigns always have their wild and unpredictable moments – a brain-snap by a leader,a policy blunder by a minister.
Australians can sense the most likely prospect:41 per cent expect a hung parliament. Even so,nobody should assume this is a certain outcome. There is an outside chance of a swing so powerful that Dutton takes office. There is also a narrow path to a Labor majority.
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So both sides play it safe. The competing campaigns do not confront the formidable challenges ahead.
The country is in an economic lull after the pandemic,yet has no sense of a common mission on major economic or tax reform. The high cost of housingpunishes the next generation for the complacency of the last.
Productivity is in terrible shape. The Reserve Bank says it shrank 1.9 per cent last year. This is the big reason households are falling behind over time. As I have written before:Labor offers platitudes,the Liberals offer complaints. Australia needs more ideas that will lift growth.
Australia also needs to bolster security when President Donald Trump brings untold volatility to the world,sending a warning that America is an unreliable ally. Can Australia actually afford an increase in defence spending?
If economic history decides the election,Dutton has the edge. Millions of workers have seen their real wages fall over the past three years because their salaries have not kept up with inflation. The consumer price index has risen more than 10 per cent since June 2022,but the wage price index has grown more slowly – and the gap is a clear measure of household pain.
If economic prospects decide the outcome,Albanese has a chance. Salaries have risen faster than prices during recent quarters,so real wages are up. This is not enough to recover all the lost ground from the first two years of this term,but the worst seems to be over. Crucially,the budget said wages will grow every year for the rest of this decade at rates that are well ahead of inflation.
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Labor has crafted a campaign to remind Australians about four positive factors:lower interest rates,higher real wages,low unemployment,and lower inflation.
Prices are rising at a much slower rate than seen earlier this term. Inflation was 6.1 per cent in the June quarter of 2022 but 2.4 per cent in the December quarter of 2024 – an obvious improvement. Unemployment is relatively low,at 4 per cent.
Will voters trust Albanese to keep this going?
Dutton faces an immense challenge when the Liberals have been driven out of so many blue-ribbon seats by the teal independents,but a big win is not impossible.
The Coalition drove Tony Abbott to victory in 2013 by gaining 18 seats. Labor swept Kevin Rudd into power in 2007 by adding 23 seats. John Howard took power in 1996 by leading the Coalition to a big victory with 29 more seats. When Australians are unhappy with their governments,they clobber them.
History suggests,however,that a prime minister who finishes his first term will usually be given another. The challenge for Albanese is to defy the instability that has plagued parliament for the past two decades. If he wins,he will be the first prime minister since Howard in 2004 to be re-elected after serving a full term.
The outcome turns on whether Albanese can convince voters he has begun the recovery and can ensure better days ahead. Dutton not only has to persuade voters they have a problem with Labor,but that he is the obvious solution.
Australians have no reason,other than party loyalty,to think one side or the other has a convincing answer to the nation’s challenges. Voters deserve better. The leader who is bold enough to set out a better vision for this country will be the leader who deserves victory,but neither will meet that test if they merely play it safe.