Voters don’t care about Albanese’s broken promise – but now they expect much more from him

Anthony Albanese has been spending hours in radio and television studios trying to build a stronger bond with millions of Australians,only to hear a deafening silence instead of a roar of applause.

The prime minister has lost ground on some of the key measures of his performance despite putting enormous energy into lifting his fortunes in the first months of this year.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows that Labor isdrifting towards the unhealthy primary vote it had at the last election – just enough to win,but not enough to feel safe. On these numbers,betting agencies will be adjusting their odds on a hung parliament.

Peter Dutton,meanwhile,is catching up to his rival. Yes,the opposition leader has a net negative performance rating,but so does Albanese. The gap between the two is now only 7 percentage points when voters are asked who is their preferred prime minister.

On leadership and trust,Albanese is now neck-and-neck with Dutton. This is a huge shift from the middle of last year,when Albanese had strong leads on most measures. The focus on theVoice to parliament came at a cost in the second half of last year.

The latest survey confirms the dangerous trend for the government. And most of it is powered by the economy and the cost of living. Australians are being hit with rising prices and higher interest rates. The survey says 38 per cent of voters expect economic conditions to get worse in the next six months,while 29 per cent think they will stay the same. Only 23 per cent expect things to improve.

Dutton does not have a compelling plan for the economy – wait for the policies later this year,his team says – but he does have a loud complaint about what he calls Labor’s cost-of-living crisis.

That is a potent message for the Coalition at theDunkley byelection in Melbourne’s south-east this Saturday,although it may not be enough for victory. (All the spin is on the size of the swing,but all the bets are on a Labor win).

There is no sign the latest shift is driven by concerns about border protection,even though Dutton placed so much attention on this in parliament after thearrival of 39 asylum seekers two weeks ago. In fact,Labor recovered a small amount of support from voters on immigration in this latest survey.

More troubling for Albanese is the broader trend. Labor was seen as the better side to manage immigration and refugees a year ago,but things have changed. The Coalition has held a clear lead on this since theHigh Court decision in November overturning indefinite detention.

The argument that consumed parliament at the start of the year,whenAlbanese broke his election promise to keep the stage 3 tax cuts,has not changed the government’s overall fortunes. Voters generally support the cuts (with 52 per cent in favour) and this is even true of Coalition voters (with support from 53 per cent of them). This has not translated into a higher Labor primary vote.

It is too early to judge the full impact of the tax cut turnaround. The new tax package has given the government something to fight for and made the Coalition seem flat-footed. At the same time,it provides Albanese with an instant answer when asked about the cost of living,helping to blunt some of the Coalition attacks.

It does not,however,drive voters to Labor. Asked about the policy switch,61 per cent of voters say it does not change their thinking about Albanese. Another 21 per cent say they like him less as a result of the decision,while 18 per cent say they like him more.

Asked if it was a broken promise,34 per cent say yes. On the other hand,46 per cent see it as changing policy to suit the times. It looks like Albanese is being heard when he says he had to adjust his plans to new circumstances.

Even so,there is a blow to the prime minister’s power to communicate with the community. That is because 36 per cent of voters say they will be less likely to believe what Albanese says in future. Another 53 per cent say it will make no difference,and 11 per cent say it makes them more likely to believe him.

Albanese isnot leaving anything to chance at this Saturday’s byelection. He did two broadcast interviews on Sunday morning,three on Friday,three on Thursday,and five on Wednesday. He is “affable Albo” in these interviews,putting hours into his relationship with voters.

But there is no applause. Not yet,at least. Labor is hostage to the economy. It may need a strong budget in May,good news on inflation and a few interest rate cuts before anyone cheers.

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