As the Coalition heads towards March – when it will ask voters for a total of 16 years in power – the Perrottet-led government is a gulf behind Labor. Its primary vote,according to the latest Resolve Political Monitor,has slumped from 42 per cent in 2019 to just 30 per cent.
Labor,on the other hand,,a result high enough to push it into majority government if its primary vote remains that high. With six months until polling day,that is unlikely.
The government has had a particularly bad run over the past months,largely of its own making. The John Barilaro trade appointment scandal has hurt the ageing government,”. Blaming an unknown public servant,now removed from the role for her actions,for the debacle will not be enough to shake that perception.
Similarly,the ongoing disruption to the Sydney’s train network,and the increasingly bitter battle with the rail unions has clearly not helped. Commuters are undoubtedly cranky,but they are not directing their anger at Labor,as the Coalition had assumed they would,despite the union links.
There has also been internal brawling,largely instigated by Transport Minister David Elliott,and NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet had to sack a minister over workplace bullying allegations. To the average voter,there would be a real sense of a tired government losing focus.
One thing the NSW government cannot be blamed for is the brand damage to the Liberals after the diabolical federal election result,which would be a certain drag on its vote.
However,fortunes can change quickly,as this week showed. Labor leader Chris Minns took the unorthodox step of sacking one of his frontbenchers on live radio,before actually informing her of his decision.
It was likely that Minns was going to remove Bankstown MP Tania Mihailuk after she in which she attacked her enemy Canterbury-Bankstown Mayor Khal Asfour,linking him to corrupt former minister Eddie Obeid.
But the way he sacked her left government ministers immediately jumping with glee,convinced that they finally had some powerful political ammunition against Minns.
NSW Labor leader Chris Minns.Dominic Lorrimer
They will attack him mercilessly for targeting a whistleblower who was trying to expose alleged corruption. Reminding voters of Labor’s sordid past and its corrupt jailed ex-ministers will be a powerful tool for the Coalition.
If a week in politics is a long time,six months is an eternity. The gap between the Coalition and Labor will definitely narrow. But it has set up the expectation that the election is Labor’s to lose.
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