NSW Labor secures election-winning lead as voters abandon the Coalition

NSW Labor has stormed ahead to secure an election-winning lead as voters abandon the Coalition following the John Barilaro trade appointment scandal and rolling public sector strikes.

With the state election due exactly six months on Saturday,Labor’s primary vote has hit 43 per cent – a 10-point increase since the 2019 election,while the Coalition’s has slumped to just 30 per cent – a massive 12-point drop since the last election.

The result,if replicated on March 25,would put Labor in majority government. The ALP needs to win at least eight seats to secure that majority.

Voters have also made it clear that the election will be fought on the rising cost of living,with 30 per cent identifying it as the No.1 issue of concern,while 10 per cent of voters singled out health and aged care,followed by the environment and climate change as well as economic management.

Despite the support for Labor,voters are not warming to either leader,with Premier Dominic Perrottet and Opposition Leader Chris Minns equal on the preferred premier rating.

Both are on 28 per cent (a slight drop for Minns from 32 per cent in February when he overtook Perrottet as preferred premier) but crucially,44 per cent of voters are undecided.

The Greens’ primary vote is on 10 per cent,while independents are also on 10 per cent,according to the latest Resolve Political Monitor,conducted forThe Sydney Morning Heraldby research company Resolve Strategic.

Support for independents is significantly higher than it was in 2019,when they received just 5 per cent of the vote. The increase in popularity is likely to concern the Coalition as it faces potential challenges from so-called teal candidates in heartland Liberal seats.

Teal candidates are likely to run in some key northern Sydney seats,including Lane Cove,North Shore,and possibly Willoughby,which is now marginal after a byelection following the resignation of former premier Gladys Berejiklian.

The Coalition has taken a significant hit in popularity in the past six months,as it battled the fallout from the trade scandal and ongoing strikes.

NSW Labor leader Chris Minns and Premier Dominic Perrottet.

NSW Labor leader Chris Minns and Premier Dominic Perrottet.The Sydney Morning Herald

An exclusive Resolve Political Monitor survey last month revealed how damaging the Barilarotrade affair had been,with most voters viewing it as a case of “jobs for the boys”.

Perrottet’s handling of the saga,which dragged on for 10 weeks,was also criticised by 45 per cent of voters,who felt the issue had been dealt with poorly.

The government has also been locked in a long-running industrial battle with the rail union which has resulted in sporadic disruptions across Sydney’s train network.

However,the survey of 1170 voters conducted in August and September was done before a horror week for Labor,which ended with Minns on Fridaysacking frontbencher Tania Mihailuk after she used parliamentary privilege to attack a party colleague who will be an upper house candidate.

Resolve director Jim Reed said there had been a big decline in support for the government since the last survey in February,when the Coalition’s primary vote was 37 per cent.

“This significant shift of support from the Coalition to Labor since February would give them an election win if reflected on polling day,” Reed said.

“A lot can happen in the next six months,of course,but this tells us that voters are at the very least sending a message to the government to focus on what matters to voters,and not stadiums,strikes and scandals.

“If they don’t,voters appear to be warming to Chris Minns as the alternative.”

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Alexandra Smith is the State Political Editor of The Sydney Morning Herald.

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