Perrottet’s COVID-19 U-turn shows need for better planning

When Dominic Perrottet took over as Premier,there was much speculation about whether he would be more likely to ignore health officials’ advice on COVID-19 than his predecessor Gladys Berejiklian but on Friday he showed he is listening to them when it counts.

The suggestion that Mr Perrottet would “let the virus rip” was fuelled by the libertarian rhetoric he used in his first few weeks promising to restore “personal freedom” and his decision to move faster than the national timetable in removing social distancing restrictions. Against the clear preference of Chief Medical Officer Kerry Chant,on December 15 NSW dropped mandatory masking in most settings.

Yet the arrival of the highly infectious Omicron variant has made Mr Perrottet change his tune. He brought the mask restrictions and capacity limits at indoor retailers back straight after Christmas. On Friday,he went a step further and again banned dancing and singing in night clubs and pubs.

Some will question why he scrapped the restrictions in December only to reintroduce them. The on-again off-again changes to social distancing restrictions are exhausting and frustrating for the people of NSW who have endured so much in the past two years.

The dropping of restrictions in mid-December looks short-sighted in retrospect. Given that the Omicron threat was already clear then,it would have been better to maintain them.

Mr Perrottet on Friday defended his reversal saying he did not believe that relaxing restrictions had increased cases and pointed out that he always said he would tailor the state’s settings to the circumstances.

Whatever mistakes lie in the past,the Premier did the right thing on Friday by taking a cautious and forward-looking approach designed to ensure that the hospital system is not overwhelmed by a predicted wave of cases.

The restrictions are carefully targeted at locations and activities where the virus can spread among people of different social groups who would not ordinarily meet.

The young’s right to party must be balanced against the interests of the old and the vulnerable who depend on a well-functioning health system.

Even though the disease caused by Omicron is generally less severe and passes more quickly than previous variants,the sheer number of Omicron cases is putting our state health system at risk.

The 1738 cases in hospital in NSW is almost double the peak of the Delta wave in October. The NSW government has released modelling that the figure will likelybe about 4500 in mid-February and could be 6000 in a worst-case scenario.

At the same time,the health system’s capacity – especially in intensive care units – is “down considerably” because so many healthcare workers have been furloughed due to infection or being a close contact.

Partygoers and businesses might complain about the inconvenience of the new restrictions but their concerns must be balanced against those of people affected by the cancellation of elective surgery,which has been ordered to free up beds for COVID-19 patients.

Even in purely economic terms,the restrictions make sense. Until the public is confident about the health system,businesses will be sickly,too. People are already choosing to stay home rather than risk catching Omicron.

ANZ data on Friday showed that spending in Sydney in cafes,bars and restaurants has been much weaker than the past two years and the lowest since the Delta lockdown.

The next few weeks look grim but the good news is that the peak of the crisis is expected to be over by the second half of February.

It is also encouraging that there are still only 134 people in intensive care,still well below the 242 peak during the Delta outbreak when there was a fraction of the COVID infections we are seeing now.

Providing NSW does what is required to slow the rise of infections,the modelling says that the health system will be able to provide high levels of care throughout the Omicron peak.

The measures needed will include these new restrictions and,from next week,a systematic approach to identifying,isolating and treating cases based on rapid antigen testing. The supply of RA tests and booster vaccines is also expected to increase quickly in the next few weeks.

It is very annoying that it has taken so long for the state government to catch up with the impact of Omicron on our health system but every country in the world has struggled to develop a strategy to deal with this variant.

Mr Perrottet’s announcement on Friday pricks the bubble of those who hoped that COVID-19 would simply evaporate in the new year.

Mr Perrottet says he expects the state will have to exercise vigilance for some time. Authorities should try to stick to their assurances that students will be back in the classroom for the new school year.

TheHerald accepts that some restrictions,provided they are carefully targeted and proportionate and stop short of lockdowns,can be necessary to slow the spread of Omicron. But the NSW and federal governments must try harder to avoid the confusing reversals and changes of plan seen over the past month.

They must plan carefully,based on the best evidence,overseas experience and modelling of possible scenarios and they must spend money on supplies of vaccines,testing equipment and medical staff to make sure we are prepared. Too often they have acted too slowly and then flown into a panic.

The Herald editor sends an exclusive newsletter to subscribers each week.Sign up to receive the Note from the Editor.

Since the Herald was first published in 1831,the editorial team has believed it important to express a considered view on the issues of the day for readers,always putting the public interest first.

Most Viewed in Politics