As the Minns government prepares to enter its second year in government,here are five issues set to dominate the agenda in 2024.
In 2024,NSW Premier Chris Minns will face pressure to deliver on his promise to increase Sydney’s housing supply,but will need to stare down opposition from local councils.Wolter Peeters
Housing
Housing reform has become the defining issue of Premier Chris Minns’ government,but 2024 will be when his commitment to a foot-to-the-floor approach to increasing Sydney’s density faces its first test.
For decades,anti-development sentiment had dominated Sydney’s politics. Despite ever-increasing house prices and a severe rental shortage,both parties promised only modest reforms in the lead-up to the election.
But when Minns used theHerald’s 2050 summit in May to flag the need to,the positive response convinced senior figures in the government that the politics of housing had shifted.
It emboldened Labor to aggressively pursue reforms,including zoning changes to fast-track low and medium-rise development,a series of,and the demolition of Rosehill Racecourse to make way for a ‘mini-city’ of 25,000 new homes.
But while 2023 was about promises,in 2024 the government will be judged on delivery. The series of housing announcements made before the end of the year could add about 322,800 new homes in the coming years. That won’t happen all at once,but the government has to move quickly — NSW needs to add about 75,000 new homes per year for five years to meet National Housing Accord targets.
The context is daunting. Higher interest rates as well as inflated building costs continued to hamper the construction industry and meant.
There are also the issues the government does not control;migration,and tax arrangements such as negative gearing.
The politics will also get harder. Dramatically increasing housing around eight Metro and heavy rail stations while also amending planning controls within 400 metres of another 31 train stations means potential opposition to new housing will be spread across greater Sydney. Already local councils are voicing opposition to some of the changes as they enter an election year,with threats of legal action and public campaigns.
The Coalition is also unlikely to heed Minns’ call for bipartisanship on the issue. Opposition Leader Mark Speakman has sought to make migration — a federal issue — his focus,while MPs such as Rory Amon in Pittwater and Jordan Lane in Ryde have criticised plans for more housing in their areas.
Tom Forrest,the head of the developer lobby Urban Taskforce,said one of the major challenges will be to “ignore political opportunists”.
“The NIMBY voice has been powerful for over a decade and will be out in force as council elections approach in September,” he said.
Landing a pay deal with unions such as the NSW Nurses and Midwives Association will challenge Labor’s budget repair promises.Fairfax
Public sector pay
Labor came to power on the back of its promise to,but under-estimated the demands of those workers.
Instead of plaudits for removing the cap,criticism from union leaders — led by the combative Health Services Union boss Gerard Hayes — began almost immediately.
After being accused of an “act of betrayal” by the Teacher’s Federation boss Angelo Gavrielatos,and facing on New Year’s Eve,the government eventually signed pay deals to deliver major pay increases for those workers.
Others,including the NSW Nurses and Midwives Association and Public Sector Association will have been watching those agreements closely after they grudgingly accepted a 4.5 per cent rollover deal.
The secretary of the PSA,Stuart Little,said those one-year deals had been signed because of what he said were “undertakings that everyone would receive the same outcome”.
“Now,unfortunately,that’s not what happened because then the teacher’s agreement which none of us knew about emerged. We were given undertakings there would be no agreements like that. That is not to begrudge those workers,but we have many members across diverse industries that are also in the same boat,” he said.
That will have impacts on the budget,and the focus Minns has placed on budget repair coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Drug reform advocates – including cabinet ministers such as Rose Jackson – will want bold reform if a long-promised drug summit goes ahead.Dion Georgopoulos
Social reforms
Drug laws,a ban on gay conversion and changes to the state’s 27-year-old Anti-Discrimination Act all loom as major tests for the government in 2024.
Much water has passed under the bridge since Labor first committed to holding a drug summit in NSW if elected to government back in 2019,including the Ice Inquiry commissioned by Gladys Berejiklian which recommended the complete decriminalisation of illicit drugs.
While many drug reform advocates insist there is no need for the summit given those findings,Minns has insisted it will go ahead before any major changes to drug policy.
The premier has adopted a cautious approach to the issue. Despite adopting the Coalition’s plan forMinns has played down hopes for major reform in this term of government.
After theHeraldrevealed in April he had previously made a passionate argument for the,Minns said he had changed his view. He has also adopted some of Berejiklian’s reluctance over pill testing.
The summit though will pose a major test for his leadership. Senior ministers and close Minns allies including Jo Haylen and Rose Jackson are long-time advocates for drug reform and will push hard for major changes to existing laws.
So far,even the date is contested. While senior sources insist the summit will go ahead this year,the government won’t confirm anything other than that it will go ahead in their first term. Another key advocate for reform is the powerful crossbench MP Alex Greenwich,who will push for pill testing to be allowed in the wake of a summit.
Greenwich will also be a key figure in negotiating changes to anti-discrimination laws.
The Minns government last year commissioned the NSW Law Reform Commission to review the act. The submissions to the review reveal the treacherous line the government will have to walk,ranging from religious organisations,LGBTIQ+ groups and “sex-based” feminist campaigners calling for the removal of transgender status from the existing act.
Simultaneously, — which includes changes to the Act including by banning private schools from discriminating against LGBTQ+ teachers and students — is due to be debated by the parliament in February. Those changes will likely be deferred until after the Law Reform review,but Greenwich’s support will be key to passing any changes to the legislation.
“It is 40 years since the Wran government decriminalised homosexuality in NSW and I think modern-day standards would not accept that a teacher can be fired for being gay,or a kid can be expelled for being gay,” he said.
Energy Minister Penny Sharpe will need to balance the state’s energy security with Labor’s promised climate targets.Dominic Lorrimer
Energy
NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe has some big decisions to make in 2024.
As theHerald revealed in August,the government’s review of the state’s energy grid recommended it extend the life of the,beyond its scheduled closure in 2025.
The premier has argued the extension is necessary because the rollout of renewable energy has been slower than forecast. Eraring accounts for about 18 per cent of the state’s daily energy demands,and the grid is already stretched during peak high-usage periods. In December,Sharpe was forced tobecause the grid was “under pressure” due to a heatwave.
But Eraring’s 2025 closure is baked into assumptions used to calculate NSW’s emissions reduction targets,and the plant produced about 12 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in the 2022-23 financial year.
While negotiations with Eraring’s owner,Origin Energy,are ongoing,Sharpe has refused to say how much a deal to extend it might cost taxpayers. Origin has not rushed to reveal its hand,either.
While a company spokesman said it is happy to negotiate “a path forward that can help navigate the economic challenges facing the plant and avert any risk to the reliability of electricity supply in the state”,it has not walked away from the 2025 closure date.
“The Eraring closure notice provided an important signal to the market about progress towards our nation’s climate goals,and Origin does not shy away from the need to exit coal generation as soon as there is sufficient renewables,firming and transmission capacity available,” the spokesman said.
The Rozelle Interchange will still be waiting for Roads Minister John Graham when normal business resumes in 2024.Dion Georgopoulos
Roads and infrastructure
Where to start? The Minns government may not share the Coalition’s taste for big-ticket road and rail announcements,but plenty of headaches remain.
There will be disruption for tens of thousands of commuters who will endure a total of 10 weeks of so that work on the Metro City and Southwest Metro line can continue,while the seemingly endless delays and blowouts to new regional and intercity train fleets is yet to be resolved.
Roads Minister John Graham will also face a key test when the government hands down the findings of its.
Oh,and remember the Rozelle Interchange? The saga may have quietened over the holiday period,but the same problems will still be there when Sydney traffic resumes normal service.
Add to that a stoush with the federal government over its decision to,including a total of 17 projects including the western Sydney interchange linking the M7 with the new toll-free M12 motorway to the city’s second airport.
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