State governments lose elections when they mess up service delivery,when they get corrupt,when they make silly mistakes and when good talent goes and doesn’t get replaced.
By those measures,the facts on the ground look awful for Labor.
At least. Andrews won in 2014 promising to in the ambulance service,and yet eight years,later children are dying because the phones are busy. The paramedics who wrote colourful anti-Liberal messages on their ambulance windows in 2014 may be too busy trying to save lives this time around to get their Textas out.
Victoria Police,fairly themselves,have said. They’ve always been able to get whatever they want from the government,but apparently they’re struggling,too.
Even the and kicking him out of the Socialist Left faction (the premier’s office has denied this). This is from the union that did a with the premier over pay and conditions,leading to,the CFA as we knew it,Jane Garrett’s ministerial career,and the jobs of a bunch of top executives.
Victorian. COVID-19 has stretched the health system around the country,GPs are full and emergency departments are bearing the brunt. Schools are and struggling to replace them. Two years of school closures and children studying from home have taken their toll on teachers and many are to chase less stressful jobs.
The lockdowns caused tremendous to many Victorians. They saved lives – and they. Even people who accept they were necessary can be upset about the arbitrary decisions,like closing playgrounds,that seemed unnecessarily cruel.
Those lockdowns who will now never vote for Andrews,and also radicalised others into. A lot of Victorians placed their trust in Andrews to get them through COVID-19,and for many,that trust in him remains strong.
Power in the Victorian government is even more centred around the leader than ever before. The energetic guard of senior ministers who won in 2014 with Andrews is almost all gone.
Gavin Jennings,the long-time consigliere of the premier,quit in March 2020 after the pair fell out. James Merlino,Jill Hennessy,Martin Pakula,,Lisa Neville and Martin Foley.
Adem Somyurek is gone over the. Robin Scott,Marlene Kairouz,and Luke Donnellan went in that purge as well. took the fall for whoever ordered the use of private security guards for hotel quarantine instead of Victoria Police officers. died from cancer,aged 49,in July.
It’s unclear if the next group of MPs who owe their political careers to the premier can keep him in check. Who can tell him when he’s made a mistake,like he did after Queen Elizabeth II?
Angering the Indigenous community is an easy way to bleed votes to the Greens,but the premier doubled down anyway. And he’s still refusing to apologise for l. Even the public service,stacked over the years with,isn’t pushing back on the executive with frank and fearless advice.
In a weird parallel to the 2014 election campaign,the Victorian government is pushing ahead with a major project that has a business case that.
The and the East West Link share that ignominy,and it could be argued at least the road project had more broad public support.
Opposition leader Matthew Guy has promised to if he wins,but here’s the rub. He won’t.
From 2014 to 2018,Guy led a tight,disciplined ship in opposition. For four years,while the,the Liberal and National MPs mainly held the line and stayed on message.
It was all for nothing as Andrews dominated in 2018. The size of that result essentially ensured a Labor victory in 2022,too. And the opposition has not maintained the discipline it once had.
Guy returned to the leadership and has watched the end of,the,and the rise of the,who are now threatening state Liberal seats.
The federal election saw the end of the Liberals as a force in inner Melbourne – the fear for Guy is that he will face the same fate.
There is hope for the opposition in the outer suburbs,where anti-lockdown sentiment has driven traditional voters. Some candidates for Labor aren’t happy with how the campaign is being run and the lack of information they’re being given. The premier is throwing a lot of punches to make sure the Coalition doesn’t have a chance of clawing back ground.
But Andrews holds 55 of the 88 lower house seats. It’s a huge lead. The opposition was facing an impossible task if they were united and nailing it – they are neither.
Barring a major shock,,and the premier will start it with a long list of problems to clean up.
Angus Livingston covered Victorian politics from 2014 to 2017 and federal politics in Canberra from 2018 to 2022. He is now the Lifestyle Editor ofThe Age andThe Sydney Morning Herald.