Exclusive findings from the Resolve Political Monitor,conducted forThe Age,shows the gap between the major parties is just 2 per cent,with the Coalition narrowly ahead of Labor,whose primary vote has fallen by 9 percentage points in the past 12 months.
The Coalition's primary vote is now 35 per cent,up from 31 per cent since the last survey at the end of 2023. Over the same period,Labor's primary vote has fallen four percentage points to 33 per cent.
However,the survey shows that Jacinta Allan has retained an edge over Pesutto as preferred premier,with 34 per cent of voters favouring Allan compared to 25 per cent for the Liberal leader. Despite her strong lead,,who consistently held a double-digit lead over his political opponents.
The survey of more than 1100 voters was conducted over February and March,a period in which when strong wind knocked out six transmission towers and damaged poles and wires.
Voters overwhelmingly blamed the state government over their federal counterparts and private electricity providers for the blackouts,and more than three-quarters favoured,a recommendation from.
The survey period was also a difficult one for Pesutto,as two more,which put him under greater pressure after the departure of members.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the Coalition had managed to take a vote share from Labor despite “all the internal goings-on” in Pesutto’s camp.
Reed said the result could,in part,be explained by the comments received by Victorians surveyed,as they raised concern about policies covering financial management and the cost of living,not internal party machinations.
Resolve Strategic,which conducted the polling,found Victorians who supported the government felt Labor was better at completing projects and reforming the state.
“A,rail infrastructure being built,lots of things being done (by Labor),” one voter said.
In contrast,voters backing the Coalition were increasingly concerned about economic mismanagement,including what one respondent described as “massive debt” and.
“They cancel stuff and then still pay for it,” another voter said.
Dr Zareh Ghazarian,a senior politics lecturer at Monash University,said the poll showed voters were starting to “weigh up their options”.
“What this shows is just what a giant of Victorian politics he was,and his absence is now being felt,” Ghazarian said.
The research comes amid a growing pessimism among voters. Just 14 per cent of Victorians surveyed were confident the state’s outlook would improve in the next 12 months,whereas 44 per cent predicted things would get worse.
Only 19 per cent said their personal situation would get better,while 34 per cent said it would worsen.
Ghazarian said would be crucial for the Allan government and a chance for her to “stamp her authority on the job” and “shed the legacy of Daniel Andrews”.
“If they can’t get back on the front foot,if they can’t reclaim the narrative,then they are going to struggle,” he said.
The survey also revealed more than one-third of voters support independent candidates and minor parties. The research shows support for the Greens has risen by 2 per cent since last year,while support for independents fell from 14 per cent to 12.
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