So how do you rank the top 30 of the 510-plus players in the NRL? Just ask 10 judges,including an Immortal and two potential Immortals-in-waiting,as well as another seven invested observers of the game,to ignore any criteria and declare,,who is “simply the best.”
As readers of this week’s series on the NRL’s top 50 will be aware,the list bears no relationship to the 30-man squads all 17 NRL clubs are required to lodge with headquarters before season kick off. The club lists are position-oriented,basically two teams of 15.
However,when Andrew Johns,Brad Fittler and Darren Lockyer – together with Nine Entertainment journalists and commentators – rank their top 30,a top 50 emerges,producing conclusions both obvious and unexpected.
The undisputed champion
Nathan Cleary is the standout superstar. All 10 judges ranked the Penrith halfback No.1,with 30 points,meaning his combined score was a maximum 300. Furthermore,he is 25 points clear of No.2:Newcastle’sKalyn Ponga. Cleary was always going to tally highly following his but may not have registered so powerfully if the poll had been conducted. Recency bias has an obvious influence. Had a similar poll been conducted the day after the third Test versus Great Britain in 1974 at the SCG,Graeme Langlands,an Immortal,would have been the unanimous choice of all judges. Ditto Johns when he won successive Dally M medals,or Lockyer and Fittler after one of their one-man shows. Finishing on top of our top 50 doesn’t make Cleary an Immortal yet.
Haves and have-nots:who you play for matters
The NRL competition is lopsided. If the 50 players were distributed evenly among the 17 clubs,all but one club should have three players on the list. However,more than half the competition is below average,with nine clubs having only one or two players represented. The Knights,Raiders,Bulldogs,Wests Tigers,Sharks and Dragons each have only a single player in the list,while the Eels,Dolphins and Titans have two each. Recency bias again has a role with none of these clubs progressing to the final four last season.
The salary cap still isn’t working
The salary cap is not the equalising mechanism the NRL boasts. ThePanthers and Broncoscombined have more players in the top 50 than the total of the nine below-average clubs. Penrith have shed five premiership players and are favourites for a fourth consecutive premiership. Their development system is more influential in the NRL than a salary cap. With the AFL pledging to invest $1 billion over 10 years,aiming to produce 1 million players – much of this spent in NSW and Queensland – the ARLC needs to allocate more to the base of the playing pyramid.
Pathways to success
Penrith andBrisbane have the best pathways systems. If you add the players these clubs have produced who are now with other clubs,their contribution is nearly half the top 50. If you includeMelbourne,it’s 60 per cent. In other words,the remaining 14 clubs supply only 20 players either currently on their roster,or products of their systems. While Brisbane and Penrith have the best development pathways in the NRL,they are radically different systems. The Panthers invest in junior representative teams in the NSWRL competitions,recruiting from a zone which now extends to the state’s central west,while the Broncos identify talent,award scholarships and invest in coaching. The Storm have adopted the Penrith model and will compete in the Harold Matthews,Jersey Flegg and SG Ball NSWRL competitions in 2023.
Where is the next generation?
An ageing tail further reflects lack of investment in development. To be fair,COVID-19 delayed the progress of talented youth but ideally,a code would want players ranked 41 to 50 to be at the start of their NRL careers. However,half this group are at the other end of the age spectrum. It’s understandable,however,given the judges have seen more of them than the youngsters.
Spine strikes a chord with judges
Half the list are spine players:halfback,five-eighth,hooker or fullback. Insofar as spine players comprise only four of the 13 positions on the field,the playmakers are heavily represented. Their numbers are even greater considering players likeJoey Manu (17) andJack Wighton (44) will play in the centres at their clubs,the Roosters and Rabbitohs respectively,although capable of roles in the spine.
No cutting out the middlemen
The middle is still strong. It could be expected that with the piano players dominating,the piano lifters would be ignored. However,13 players of the 50 are “middles”,also called “ruckies”,the men who do the grunt work,carrying the ball forward,establishing momentum for the decision makers to exploit. Their representation in the 50,as a percentage,approximates their numbers on the field where three starting players are “middles”,with another two on the bench. The judges have recognised their 115-year-old role,marking down the edge forwards and wingers.
A rare Origin win for NSW
The Blues still have the numbers. A breakdown of player eligibility isNSW 25,Queensland 17 andNew Zealand 8. The Blues have traditionally had greater numbers from which to select State of Origin teams,compared to the Maroons. Historically,it’s twice as many but when the top 50 players are considered,the Blues’ numerical superiority is not as pronounced. This is no surprise considering Queensland has won three of the past four Origin series.
Polynesian,Indigenous players star
Players of Indigenous and Polynesian heritage hold their own. Approximately half the NRL playing pool is of Indigenous and Polynesian descent and this equates to their representation in the top 50. In other words,they are half the playing pool and half the top talent. More importantly,if the same exercise was done with Polynesian players when the NRL began in 1998,the result would be closer to 10 per cent. When John Fifita was included in the Dragons’ top 50 in the mid-1980s,he was the last player graded but possibly the first Polynesian. Since then,these sons of the South Pacific have strengthened all NRL clubs. Indigenous players have always been chosen in state and national teams in disproportionate numbers to both their total number in the competition and their percentage in the Australian population.
The unlucky ones
We can’t agree on everything. There will always be anomalies. Many NRL fans would be shocked at the lofty position ofShaun Johnson (10) but remember he was byKalyn Ponga (ranked 2). Others will be surprised the Cowboys’Jason Taumalolo did not make the top 50. Nor didTohu Harris who was great for the Warriors in 2023. While at the Storm,Harris played middle,edge,in the halves and centres. Plus he played 80 minutes. We don’t like we should,particularly since have rewarded it.
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