On the one hand,the and armed drones fired at Israel on the weekend has given the Jewish state an invitation to address its deepest fear. Iran is working towards creating a nuclear bomb. Israel for decades has feared the day when the ayatollahs achieve their aim. By launching its first direct military assault on Israeli territory,the Islamic Republic now has given Israel licence to strike back. And the Iranian nuclear facilities present a very tempting target.
Illustration:Dionne GainSupplied
The latest indications are that it has made serious progress. “They have already taken most of the steps they would need to take” to build a nuclear weapon,says David Albright,president of the Institute for Science and International Security and formerly an inspector of the Iranian facilities for the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.
Tehran’s greatest obstacle had been how to create highly enriched uranium but now “they have solved that problem,even better than they expected,” Albright told theWashington Post last week. “You can tell from their statements that they are well aware of what they have.”
The IAEA still has limited access to the Iranian facilities. According to thePost,the most recent inspection,made in February,reported a stockpile of about 120 kilograms of Uranium-235 enriched to 60 per cent purity,near weapons grade,in Iran’s labs – enough to make at least three bombs.
Israel has its own nuclear weapons,perhaps the world’s worst-kept nuclear secret. So it has a deterrent against an Iranian nuclear strike. And it has time;it’s estimated that while Tehran already has the makings of a bomb,it would need perhaps two years or more to mount it on a deliverable warhead.
But could a responsible national leader bypass a rare opportunity to disarm his country’s nemesis of the existential threat of nuclear weapons? It wouldn’t be clean or complete. While some of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure would be vulnerable to an Israeli air strike,much of it is buried deep underground. Israel probably could degrade but not destroy it,and Iran would feel obliged to retaliate. It easily could develop into a full-scale war.
If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to strike Iran’s nuclear production facilities,he likely would have the support of some important neighbours. Recall that key Sunni Arab states,notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,consider the Shiite regime in Iran their greatest threat.
On the level of domestic politics,he’d be sure to find favour with his far-right coalition partners. His national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir,for instance,says that “the boss must go nuts” in retaliating to Iran’s barrage. Lacking prudence,but not enthusiasm.
An enervated Israeli people would not enjoy having to endure more danger from Iran and its proxies,but could be expected to support a mission to retard the Iranian nuclear program.
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir says “the boss should go nuts”.Bloomberg
On the other hand,Israel’s indispensable ally does not want Netanyahu to strike back. The US is not interested in a full-scale Middle East war. For several reasons.
First,Joe Biden is heading to an election in seven months. He does not want to be entangled in an avoidable war in support of anyone,and Netanyahu in particular is not a popular figure with much of the Democratic Party’s support base because of his mass killing of Palestinian civilians in Gaza. Biden wants maximum Democrat voter turnout on November 5.
And note that Donald Trump in recent weeks has qualified his support for Israel in Gaza – Trump has called for Israel to “get it over with,and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people. And that’s a very simple statement. Get it over with”.
Second,a full-scale regional war in the Middle East could drive up oil prices,rekindle inflation and crash global share markets. Iran produces four million barrels of oil a day,about 5 per cent of global output.
Plus Iran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen already have made trouble for international shipping in the Red Sea. They could be expected to turn their policy of mere harassment into havoc.
Third,America is busy. Its political and military systems are straining to keep supporting Ukraine while simultaneously trying to gird for future crises with the country it has called its “pacing threat” – China. A package of $US95 billion in aid for Israel,Ukraine and Taiwan has been stalled in the US House of Representatives for two months.
So what,you might ask? Netanyahu so far has demonstrated near-contempt for the wishes and worries of the US in pursuing his Gaza war. But the weekend has illuminated the real power and value of Israel’s allies in a crisis. Of the more than 300 weapons flung from Iran at Israel,the Israelis said that 99 per cent were intercepted.
But not by Israel alone. It turns out that the Americans intercepted more than a quarter – 80 of Iran’s armed drones and at least six of its ballistic missiles,according to US Central Command.
Other nations helped defend Israel,too. “We are working closely with the US,UK and France who acted tonight,” said Israel’s Defence Ministry. “This partnership has always been close,but tonight it manifested itself in an unusual way.”
Unusual indeed. Jordan was involved,too. The net result of this allied effort was to render Israel just about bulletproof. Not only did these allies play a critical role,but we’ve now learnt that other Israeli neighbours also have been lining up to help defend it.
The Wall Street Journal reported on the weekend that the US last month secretly convened the military leadership of Israel,Egypt,Jordan,Bahrain,Saudi Arabia and Qatar to discuss coordinated plans for the defence of Israel in a nascent air defence network.
So Netanyahu could choose to strike Iran and its nuclear facilities in particular,but he must weigh the risk of alienating the US and other allies. Because without allies,we now know,Israel would not be so bulletproof.
Peter Hartcher is international editor.
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