Biden will say the state of the union is strong,but that’s a stretch

Senior fellow at the US Studies Centre and former political staffer

The US State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress – with the Supreme Court,the military chiefs and the diplomatic corps present – is the biggest pulpit a president has for talking to the American people,and indeed the world.

This year will be different. Instead of Democrat Nancy Pelosi,the honour of introducing Joe Biden goes to Kevin McCarthy,the new Republican Speaker of the House,who will be sitting beside Vice President Kamala Harris. That new tableau captures the raw political truth for the next two years:any Biden legislation McCarthy opposes is dead. It cannot pass the House and will not become law.

All OK? Not quite:US President Joe Biden will deliver his State of the Union address on Wednesday (AEDT).

All OK? Not quite:US President Joe Biden will deliver his State of the Union address on Wednesday (AEDT).AP

Biden comes to the rostrum stronger than many anticipated before the midterm elections. In December,building on big wins on infrastructure,clean energy and healthcare,Biden secured legislation to fund the government,to further aid Ukraine,and to prevent a replay of attempts to overturn a presidential election.

Biden also takes the dais with ablistering employment report:517,000 jobs created in January;unemployment at a 53-year low of 3.4 per cent;black unemployment at a historic low of 5.6 per cent. Also,inflation is receding and interest rates are within sight of their summit.

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy points to the newly installed nameplate at his office after he was sworn in as speaker of the 118th Congress in Washington.

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy points to the newly installed nameplate at his office after he was sworn in as speaker of the 118th Congress in Washington.AP

But the true state of the union is rattled and unsettled. While Biden talks up the economy,most Americans believe a recession is coming. Biden was elected with the support of millions who wanted him to unite the country. But America is as divided as ever. His approval is underwater at44 per cent. Almost three-quarters of Americans (71 per cent) say the country is on the wrong track – a number that has not budged in Biden’s presidency.

Washington is not working when urgency requires it. Tyre Nichols was beaten to death by police in Memphis nearly three years after George Floyd was murdered by police in Minneapolis. Yes,the police are facing justice,but there is no prospect – because of Republican opposition – of enacting a police reform bill that would curb excessive police violence. Tyre Nichols’ parents will be in the gallery when Biden insists that Congress do its job. Tears will flow.

There have been more mass shootings in the US in 2023 than there are days in the year so far. But there is no prospect that Congress will outlaw assault weapons,even though 68 per cent of Americans want them banned. American women overwhelmingly want abortion rights restored. The Republican House may pass a nationwide abortion ban.

Biden will demand that Congress act now to increase the debt limit. If this fails,the US will default for the first time in its history,with catastrophic consequences. He will challenge Republican proposals to tie the debt limit to massive spending cuts to Medicare,social security and programs supporting working families. The president will dare them to go down that road.

The US military shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon after it traversed sensitive military sites across North America.

Biden the bipartisan champion will make a pitch to solve the immigration crisis at the southern border.

He will then turn to the world. With the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion,and decisive battles ahead,Biden will underscore Ukraine’s heroism,the need for Russia to be stopped and driven out of land it has seized,and the extraordinary unity that NATO has executed under his leadership.

Biden will discuss China. His Secretary of State Antony Blinken had been scheduled to travel there this week to meet with President Xi. But China’s spy balloon torpedoed that. When the Soviets shot down a US spy plane in 1960 – capturing the U2’s pilot Francis Gary Powers – the Cold War went into a deeper freeze,leading to the Cuban missile crisis. Congress is rife with bipartisan hostility towards China. Even before the balloon was shot down,Republican and Democratic leaders on a new House committee on China were blunt:the threat posed by China,they said,“is not confined to distant shores — it is here at home,and we must act to counter this threat”.

Australians will be watching Biden’s China remarks to see – in addition to what Biden says on ties with Japan and South Korea – if AUKUS and the “unbreakable” alliance with Australia are cited as critical to the strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific.

Biden wanted to address the American people and the world as a successful president – not as a president seeking re-election. That will come soon.

Biden has no problem with being underestimated. In 2024,the election will turn on the economy and how strong it is,and the world and how safe we are.

The Democrat veteran will remember 1982 when Ronald Reagan,at this very moment in his presidency,had an approval rating lower than his. The economy,ravaged by inflation,was in recession. But it came roaring back the next year. It was “morning in America” again,and Reagan romped to re-election.

Biden can see to that horizon. That is why he will say,“My fellow Americans,the state of our union is strong!”

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

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Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

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