Bracing for impact,US political world waits for Donald Trump indictment

Washington:Things are about to get even uglier in the Divided States of America.

Facing possible charges over alleged hush money paid to an adult film star,Donald Trump has launched a pre-emptive strike to control the narrative,rally supporters to his side,and play the victim as he attempts another shot at the White House.

Donald Trump says he believes he will be arrested and charged this week and has called for supporters to protest.

And so far,it’s working for him.

Like most incendiary things involving Trump,it began with a social media post. On 7.26 am on Saturday (US time),Trump urged for protests in response to what he claimed would be his imminent arrest in a years-long Manhattan criminal investigation that is about to wrap up.

“THE FAR&AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.” he wrote. “PROTEST,TAKE OUR NATION BACK!”

The directive for supporters to take to the streets was hauntingly reminiscent of Trump’s call to action on January 6,2021,when he urged fans to “fight like hell” to stop Joe Biden’s presidential election victory from being certified.

Violent rioters,loyal to then-president Donald Trump,storm the Capitol in Washington,on January 6,2021.

Violent rioters,loyal to then-president Donald Trump,storm the Capitol in Washington,on January 6,2021.AP

It didn’t matter that his team later clarified there had not actually been any notification of a formal indictment – at least not yet. In fact,Trump’s lawyers even explained that his comment about the timing of his arrest had merely been gleaned from unsourced media reports suggesting authorities expected to convene this week to discuss security and logistics related to potential charges.

What mattered,however,was that one social media rant had the desired impact for Trump:to shake up the political landscape and reinforce the power he continues to command within his party.

Indeed,no sooner had the twice-impeached president claimed he would be arrested on Tuesday,Republicans rallied around him to attack Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg,who has indicated he is considering charges against Trump for his role in allegedly trying to silence adult film star Stormy Daniels,who claimed she had an affair with him.

House of Representatives speaker Kevin McCarthy said any indictment by Bragg would be an “outrageous abuse of power” and vowed to direct committees to investigate whether federal funds were being used on “politically motivated prosecutions”.

Adult-film star Stormy Daniels in 2018. Trump’s campaign allegedly paid hush money to her in 2016.

Adult-film star Stormy Daniels in 2018. Trump’s campaign allegedly paid hush money to her in 2016.AP

Potential presidential nomination rivals such as former vice president Mike Pence scrambled to find the balance between keeping Trump’s base on side and stoking the potential for civil unrest,urging protests to take place “peacefully and in a lawful manner”.

And Trump’s campaign issued a barrage of emails soliciting money to pump up his 2024 presidential nomination on the basis that he was once again the subject of a “witch hunt”.

“If media leaks are correct,this could be the last time I write to you before a possible indictment comes down,” he said in one email urging readers to donate to his presidential campaign.

“There’s no attack in the world that can bring down this movement,” he declared in another. “The people of our country want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN – and NOTHING can stop us!”

And then came a message in capital letters for full effect:“IT’S TIME!!! WE JUST CAN’T ALLOW THIS ANYMORE. THEY’RE KILLING OUR NATION AS WE SIT BACK&WATCH. WE MUST SAVE AMERICA! PROTEST,PROTEST,PROTEST!!!”

It’s still not clear whether Trump has the power to mobilise supporters the way he did two years ago in the moments leading up to the US Capitol attack,or whether the convictions of those involved in the January 6 attack may have weakened the desire for another rage-fuelled display of civil unrest.

But New York authorities are nonetheless monitoring potential threats and beefing up security around the Manhattan courthouse and the DA’s office in the event of a flare up.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.AP

In the meantime,Trump is using the case to inject some momentum into his presidential campaign,knowing that the risk for Bragg and the Democrats is high.

After all,there are currently several investigations into the former president,including a Department of Justice probe into the Capitol attack;a Georgia-based investigation into election interference in that state;and another Justice Department investigation into the handling of classified documents.

However,legal experts say this one,involving a $US130,000 ($194,000) payment to Daniels through Trump’s then “fixer” Michael Cohen (who isn’t exactly a poster child when it comes to the truth) is arguably the hardest to win.

Firstly,prosecutors would have to prove that the money was paid with the election solely in mind – and that the payment was “falsely accounted” as a legal retainer to Cohen – as opposed to a payment made for other obvious reasons,such as preserving a marriage or protecting one’s own reputation.

Secondly,the case relies on a complex merging of laws that would essentially unite two cases – falsifying business records and a violation of state election law. Only by connecting the first to the second would it be a crime,as opposed to a standard misdemeanour.

Thirdly,there’s a statute of limitations,which normally – but not always – requires an indictment of this manner to happen within five years. This case emerged during the final weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign when Daniels was trying to sell her story of an affair to theNational Inquirer. Instead of purchasing the story,the paper’s boss David Pecker,a Trump ally,helped broker the payment with Cohen and Daniels’ lawyer.

And history also provides a cautionary tale in the form of the failed federal prosecution of former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards. Edwards was also caught in a sex scandal with an unknown actress,which resulted in a love child,an attempted cover-up,and six felony charges.

He was eventually found not guilty on one of those charges,while the jury deadlocked on the other five.

The case of former presidential candidate John Edwards offers a cautionary tale for prosecutors.

The case of former presidential candidate John Edwards offers a cautionary tale for prosecutors.Ellen Ozier

Prosecutors didn’t appeal and the matter was dropped,although not without ending political aspirations of Edwards. In this case,the stakes are even higher.

Indicting a former president who is currently the Republican’s frontrunner for the White House would be unprecedented and potentially dangerous if the charges don’t stick and Trump’s supporters decide to heed his calls. It could also garner more sympathy for his cause,undercut other investigations against him – some of which go to the heart of American democracy – and flip the script on the 2024 election.

Trump has no plans to stand down from the race if he’s charged. And as his former national security adviser John Bolton put it:“However guilty Trump may be – if they indict and fail to convict in New York,I think historians will look back and say that is the act that re-elected Donald Trump as president.”

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Farrah Tomazin is the North America correspondent for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald.

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