The son of a policeman and housewife,he grew up in Karanganyar,a region of Central Java on the slopes of Mount Lawu,before studying law and political science and then becoming an MP in 2004.
If his was an “ordinary” upbringing,though,it is an establishment figure of the highest order,who will determine whether Pranowo is ultimately in the presidential race.
Megawati Sukarnoputri,the daughter of Indonesia’s founding father and first president Sukarno,has made clear it is up to her,as PDI-P chair,to decide who the party will throw its weight behind.
It is the only political group that has enough seats in the 575-member House of Representatives to meet,on its own,the 20 per cent threshold required to nominate a presidential and vice-presidential duo. Others must join forces to reach that bar.
Dynastic politics is still thriving in Indonesia and Megawati is known to want to put her daughter Puan Maharani,the parliamentary house speaker,on the party’s ticket. But her low scores in voter surveys count against her and suggest a vice-presidential berth at best.
Widodo,by contrast,is enjoying soaring popularity levels,ending last year with a 71 per cent approval rating,and while he doesn’t strictly have a say on which combination PDI-P settles on,his endorsement will carry much influence.
Arya Fernandes,a political expert from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta,said vice-presidential choices would also sway voters but the Widodo factor was significant.
“Jokowi has loyal voters,they are like 10 to 15 per cent of total national voters. Most of them will go to Ganjar,only a small percentage will go to Anies and Prabowo,” he said.
“People know that Ganjar is Jokowi’s crown prince.”
One reason speculated for Widodo’s backing of Pranowo relates to the president’s determination that Indonesia sees through his signature project – the $48 billionrelocation of the capital from Jakarta to a new city called Nusantara he plans to have built in East Kalimantan province on Borneo.
The ambitious venture has yet to draw the private investment needed for it to take shape,however,and Baswedansignalled doubts about shifting the capital while speaking at an event held by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute this month.
“We did not have open,intensive and extensive conversations on why we need to establish a new capital and why we need to relocate,” said the 53-year-old ex-university rector.
Subianto,71,the former Indonesian special forces general who was beaten by Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 elections but then installed in his cabinet,has said previously he was supportive of the relocation.
The president may assess Pranowo,though,to be the best bet to secure his legacy,Fernandes said.
“I see that Jokowi has an interest to see that the next government will continue to develop the new capital city,” he said. “And perhaps Jokowi thinks that Ganjar can fulfil that expectation.”
Djayadi Hanan,the executive director of the Indonesia Survey Institute,said Pranowo benefited from sharing Widodo’s common touch.
“Ganjar looks more similar to Jokowi in his approach to people,” he said. “Ganjar likes to do impromptu visits just like Jokowi. The way he speaks is also simple. He comes from an ordinary family just like Jokowi,not from a political elite family. So,PDI-P voters see Jokowi’s representation more in Ganjar than in Puan Maharani.”
Analysts stress,however,that there are any number of permutations still in play,including the potential for PDI-P to back former special forces general Prabowo in a coalition with his party Gerindra.
Loading
Hanan also pointed out that while Pranowo had the highest electability among would-be candidates,his position was far from dominant.
“Many of Jokowi’s supporters are indeed Ganjar’s supporters but the number is only around 45 per cent. More than 50 per cent of Jokowi’s supporters have not decided whom they will vote for,” he said.
“We still have many possibilities right now. Nobody knows exactly who will run.”
Whether there will ultimately be two or three presidential tickets on election day is also unknown.
If there are three,there is very likely to be a second round required two months later to determine a winner.
“The public see Ganjar and Prabowo as Jokowi’s successors,” said Aditya Perdana,the executive director of the University of Indonesia’s Centre of Political Studies.
“I think the key lies with PDI-P. Other parties are waiting[for PDI-P’s candidates]. Once PDI-P announces its candidates,the configuration of party coalitions will immediately be built and we will know whether there will be two pairs or three pairs of candidates.”
Get a note directly from our foreigncorrespondentson what’s making headlines around the world.Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here.