Melbourne,which currently has just over 5 million people,is projected to pass Sydney as the country’s largest city at some point in the 2030s. Sydney currently has 5.3 million people,on par with international cities like Barcelona and St Petersburg,but far smaller than Tokyo,New York,and London.
Over the coming decade,Victoria’s population of 6.6 million is projected to grow to about 7.8 million,while NSW is forecast to gain an additional 1.1 million people to reach 9.3 million - with the majority of the growth driven by net overseas migration as the fertility rate dwindles.
It comes as state premiers lobby for more influence on the country’s migration intake,and as NSW Premier Chris Minns andVictoria Premier Jacinta Allan joined a state-led backlash to federal Labor’s plans to level $11 billion in cuts to infrastructure plans across the country,and move to a 50-50 funding model for future major projects.
KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said the population projections signalled the need for a major step-change in the planning for Sydney and Melbourne’s growth,as their populations surpassed six million over the coming decade,exacerbating existing pressures on housing,transport,hospitals and other essential services.
“Over the last two years,we’ve seen a big catch-up on international migration,while at the same time we’ve had a slowdown in housing[construction] as a result of COVID. So a whole range of factors have left us in this very tight housing market with vacancy rates below one per cent,which is unprecedented,” Rawnsley said.