Will it be Burning Love or Heartbreak Hotel for Elvis at the box office?

Can Baz Luhrmann’sElvis continue the success of such musical biopics asBohemian Rhapsody andRocketman?

After weeks of splashy premieres,cinema executives around the world are about to find out whether the king of rock and roll has the same box office appeal as Queen and Elton John.

“An absolute saturation release”:Austin Butler as Elvis Presley in Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis.

“An absolute saturation release”:Austin Butler as Elvis Presley in Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis.Warner Bros

While Luhrmann’s interest in an Elvis Presley biopicdates back a decade,Hollywood studio Warner Bros would have been encouraged to back it by 2018’sBohemian Rhapsody taking an exceptional $US911 million ($1.3 billion) then 2019’sRocketman following up with $US195 million.

But on the flip side,the Aretha Franklin biopicRespect tooka dismal $US32 million last year.

In Australia,Elvis will be easy to find despite intense Hollywood competition fromTop Gun:Maverick,Jurassic World:Dominion,Lightyear andMinions:The Rise of Gru.

The managing director of Universal Pictures International,Mike Baard,says the Australian-produced film will open in about 305 cinemas around the country.

“It’s an absolute saturation release,” he says. “There are very few locations that won’t be playingElvis.”

Baard is wary about saying how much Universal has spent on marketing the movie but it has included television advertising,premieres on the Gold Coast,Sydney and Melbourne and promotional tours by Austin Butler,who plays Presley,and Tom Hanks,who plays manager Colonel Tom Parker.

“I don’t know how much we’ve spent because we just keep spending,” he says. “We’ve made sure this film is on as many people’s radar as possible.

WhileLuhrmann’s films have long polarised reviewers,they have been strikingly successful at the Australian box office.

Director Baz Luhrmann with Austin Butler on the set of Elvis.

Director Baz Luhrmann with Austin Butler on the set of Elvis.Warner Bros

The widely panned romantic epicAustralia (which took $37.6 million) is the second-biggest Australian film hit – behind onlyCrocodile Dundee – followed byMoulin Rouge! ($27.8 million),The Great Gatsby ($27.4 million) andStrictly Ballroom ($21.8 million).

The big questions that will determine whether it will beBurning Love orHeartbreak Hotel forElvis are how many older viewers will buy tickets given continuing COVID concerns,how much younger viewers are interested in Presley and whether it will attract repeat visits asTop Gun:Maverick has done.

It is expected to passRocketman ($20.5 million) but no one expects it will get anywhere nearBohemian Rhapsody ($55.4 million).

The director of sales,marketing and content for Hoyts cinemas,Stephanie Mills,thinksElvis will take about $28 million – similar toMoulin Rouge! andGatsby.

“The spectacle of a Baz Luhrmann movie with the music and the story of Elvis is something that needs to be seen,” she says. “And looking at pre-sales,there’s a lot of interest in it,particularly in our Hoyts Lux[premium] sessions.”

Mills believesElvis could followMaverick by initially playing to an older audience then attracting younger viewers.

“If word of mouth is great on it – and I have a feeling it will be – it’s going to be something that people want to experience,” she says. “It feels like it’s going to play long.”

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Email the writer at gmaddox@smh.com.au and follow him on Twitter at @gmaddox.

Garry Maddox is a Senior Writer for The Sydney Morning Herald.

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