"There are multiple ways where the effects of climate change are acting to increase fire risks,"said Nerilie Abrams,a climate scientist at Australian National University and lead author of the paper."What you expect to see is not just a gradual increase...but a very rapid intensification of fire risks."
In particular,the projected continued reduction in winter and spring rainfall was likely to pre-condition south-eastern Australia,particularly in Victoria,to forest fire.
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Increased forest dieback in response to heat stress and the reduction in cool-season rainfall would add to the risks,the paper said.
Fire weather could also worsen,with"some evidence that these extreme front events[that draw heat from inland Australia to the coast] will become more frequent in southern Australia",the report said.
Similarly,the number of days favouring extreme pyrocumulonimbus clouds – fire-induced storm cells –forming over firegrounds are also projected to have"significant increases"under a high greenhouse gas emissions future.
During the satellite era up to 2019,60 such fire-induced weather events were recorded or suspected in Australia,the researchers found. During the 2019-20 fire season,at least 29 such events occurred including at least 18 in a single week.