As of Monday,the number of new infections per week in Italy is 39 cases per 100,000 v 58 in Australia and a striking 478 in Britain. There are still severe cases,hospitalisations and deaths (the average for last week was 41 deaths a day in Italy v 136 a day in Britain),but the health system is under control.
Italy,the first Western country hit by COVID-19,has shown how to fight its way back. Although frequently criticised for its efficiency gaps,Italy conceived and implemented major public health measures against COVID-19 that were later implemented in Europe – such as mandatory masks,closed “red areas”,curfews and,above all,national lockdown. Isolated from all neighbouring countries,which initially closed their borders,Italy continued to develop its strategy in different ways through the crisis. Its experience could be instructive for Australia.
After six weeks of national lockdown,Italy gradually lifted all restrictions and the Prime Minister invited the population to take “a calculated risk” and “learn to live with COVID-19″. Some people were scared,but many sectors of the economy were relieved,tourism in particular. It was a season of transition,allowing for the local population to slowly recover,but then colder weather brought a setback and the country struggled with the virus until March 2021.
Two major factors relevant to Australia right now changed the scenario.
First,the vaccination campaign ramped up successfully. Today,Italy has more than 74 per cent of the whole population fully vaccinated and has started the third dose for selected groups. To escalate take-up further,a proof of complete vaccination (“green pass”) has been made mandatory to work and enter all public spaces,including restaurants and transport.
Second,restrictions have been increasingly focused on the regional level,using different parameters to trigger them. Initially,policies were based on the R,or reproduction rate of the virus,which was considered controversial. Although providing a better indication of the epidemiological trend of infections,R is hard to calculate,released once a week (for the week before),and difficult to interpret. After a long debate,it was replaced by three indicators:weekly incidence rates per 100,000,hospital occupation rates in intensive care and occupation rates in other medical wards dedicated to COVID-19. The advantage of these measures is that they are all publicly available at province,regional and national level on a daily basis,thus much better suited to engage citizens.