COVID-19 testing at the Albury showgrounds in August. The local government area recorded 48 new cases on Thursday.

COVID-19 testing at the Albury showgrounds in August. The local government area recorded 48 new cases on Thursday.Credit:Jason Robins

Earlier this week,Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said she would be most interested in the trajectory of the case numbers from this coming Monday – two weeks after restrictions were eased.

Professor Catherine Bennett,epidemiologist at Deakin University,agreed it was “a bit too early” to see the impact of eased restrictions.

“We are getting to such low numbers it looks like dramatic increases,but it’s not really,and we always do see higher numbers in the later part of the week,” she said,noting hospitalisations were continuing to decline.

University of Sydney epidemiologist Professor Alexandra Martiniuk said the numbers “did not come as a surprise”,noting there was significant variation in what modellers were predicting would happen next while changing restrictions and vaccination rates take effect.

“All epidemiologists knew that we would start to see increasing numbers,” she said.

“The question is how high will the increase go and when will it turn around – some modellers say that the vaccination rate means around Christmas is when we will start to see the downwards fall.”

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More than half of Thursday’s cases were recorded outside metropolitan Sydney,with about half of the increase in infections due to a spike in cases near the Victorian border.

Fifty-one of the 372 new local cases reported were in the Murrumbidgee Local Health District,which had previously been recording daily figures between 10 and 18 cases over the past week.

Of those 51 cases,48 were recorded in Albury local government area,six of whom were residents at the Mercy Place aged care facility. The other three cases lived in the Edward River and Greater Hume areas.

“A significant amount of current cases are among those aged 12 to 24,” the district said in a statement. “It is critical those aged 12 and above come forward for vaccination.”

Professor Bennett said it would be expected the virus would start to find places which have lower vaccination rates,due to solid overall coverage,necessitating targeted public health responses.

The approach to vaccinating regional areas needed to be similar to that taken in western Sydney in July,Professor Martiniuk said.

“[US regulators] will make a ruling on vaccination for ages five to 11 next week,and that could definitely change things for the better,too,depending on the result,” she added.

According to data released by the federal government on Monday,the Edward River Council area has the lowest vaccination rate in the state:66 per cent of residents aged 16 and over have received a first dose and 55 per cent are fully vaccinated.

The double-dose rate in Albury – 72.5 per cent – is also below the state average,although more than 94 per cent of its 16 and over population has received a first dose.

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Albury mayor Kevin Mack said most cases were younger people who had only received one or no dose.

“They are doing really well,as in,they are not in hospital,” he said,attributing the spread to the “transitory nature” of the age group’s social lives.

Residents of border communities do not need to complete a declaration form if entering NSW from Victoria provided they remain within the border region. If they have travelled beyond the region,the stay-at-home rules for people entering from Victoria apply.

Ashigh case numbers continue to be recorded in Victoria,Cr Mack said the spread of the virus from the south was “beyond our control”,noting recent cases in the area have had origins in both Melbourne and Sydney.

“People in Albury-Wodonga see ourselves as one community,we don’t see the border,” he said.

He attributed the jump in cases to younger people with minimal symptoms being tested – there were more than 1000 tests reported at Albury’s clinics on Thursday,double the daily figure last week.

Other areas in NSW experienced slight increases in cases on Thursday.

Eighty of the new cases were from South Western Sydney Local Health District,up from 60 reported on Wednesday. Seventy-four cases were in the Hunter New England region,up from 62.

While Victoria comes out of lockdown on Friday,NSW Health announced Victorians will have to abide by stay-at-home orders while in NSW until November.

In a statement issued on Thursday night,the department said fully vaccinated Victorians would be allowed to enter NSW for holiday or recreation from November 1.

“However,from 1 November,an unvaccinated person who has been in Victoria in the previous 14 days will not be able to enter NSW for a holiday or recreation,” the statement said.

“Appropriate exemptions will be established for people living in border communities.”

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