No new policy,no economic modelling,no updated forecast on greenhouse gas emissions. Morrison railed against Labor for not having a plan but could not hide the black hole on his own side. WhileEnergy Minister Angus Taylor is meant to have an updated investment roadmap,its release is on hold while everyone waits on the Nationals. Taylor got a single question from his own side on Wednesday and most of his answer was about Labor.
That leaves Joyce and the Nationals to lead the argument when they are consumed by doubt and confusion. What is the cost of the net zero pledge? “My answer to that is I don’t know,” Joyce told Andrew Bolt on Sky News on Wednesday night. He is only the Deputy Prime Minister,after all.
But his colleagues know the ministry he holds:transport and infrastructure,a sector responsible for 16 per cent of Australia’s carbon emissions. They have noticed he does not offer any detail about what net zero means in his own portfolio. They assume he does not know.
Liberals and Nationals alike know the objective here:for Liberals to commit to net zero in the cities while the Nationals accept it,reluctantly,in the bush. The dynamic,with all its theatrics,can give Morrison an edge because it offers something Albanese cannot match. Labor and the Greens usually work against each other.
In the meantime,however,the government has put its division up in lights. Morrison sat stony-faced while Joyce told Parliament on Wednesday that the Nationals would be the“final arbiter” of their position. Minutes later,Morrison said federal cabinet would make the decision. The next morning he arranged live television interviews about the pandemic after three straight days when the Nationals owned the breakfast media cycle.
It is not easy,crunching the gears of the government while everyone tries to reposition after years of scaremongering over the cost of cutting emissions. The Coalition has been belching smoke while Morrison turns the wheel and asks MPs to change direction. No wonder it takes time. “We’ve been using climate as a rallying cry for more than a decade,” says one MP who questions the new instructions.
The effect left the government vulnerable while it attempted its manoeuvre,but this was only half of what happened in Parliament this week. Yes,Morrison and Joyce left the government’s underbelly exposed. But Albanese failed to drive home the sword.
“I’m surprised they haven’t hurt us more,” says one Nationals MP who is matter-of-fact about how bad this week has been for the government.
Labor knew its target. It went after Joyce in question time in the knowledge that the Nationals leader will be a drag on government support in the cities. Albanese fired some heated words across the chamber,but nobody at home pays much attention to this. The tactics were right,the intensity was wrong. There was no clash to highlight a government in limbo while the Deputy Prime Minister is dragged to a decision.
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There is no secret about the goal for Labor:when voters hear Morrison,they have to think Joyce. This was the week to cement the connection. It needed tactical overkill,of course,but Tony Abbott committed overkill every day over four years in opposition.
Labor will still have ways to exploit the gulf between Morrison and Joyce but it may not be as easy as it was this week. Caucus members admit the big argument,yet to come,is about whether Albanese will fight the next election on a bigger emissions target. For now,they have no answer.
The net zero decision is likely within days.The Nationals will accept the need to end their division,or at least paper over it,so they can give Morrison the policy he wants.
No matter how reluctant he appears,Joyce has to make the shift. He has to choose. Another saying from Sir Joh explains why. “You can’t walk along a barbed wire fence with one foot either side.”
David Crowe is chief political correspondent.