It surveyed Kooyong,held by the Treasurer and potential future leader Josh Frydenberg,Flinders held by the Health Minister,Greg Hunt and Goldstein,held by newly minted frontbencher and longer-term leadership aspirant Tim Wilson.
It did not survey Higgins – once the domain of John Gorton,Peter Costello and Kelly O’Dwyer –which Katie Allen holds with a margin of 3.7 per cent,figuring it would go Labor or Greens.
In fact,a poll conducted by Labor in Higgins last week showed it was within reach. It showed the Liberal vote had dropped 6 per cent to 41,Labor’s went up one to 26,the Greens went down four to 19,Clive Palmer’s party was at five and independents around four. After preference distribution it was 50-50.
More people were dissatisfied with the Morrison government’s handling of the pandemic (56 per cent) than satisfied (30 per cent). And the Joyce factor is huge with 63 per cent of voters in Higgins holding an unfavourable opinion of him. His net negative rating among women is at a staggering minus 53 per cent.
The result poses a dilemma for Labor in Victoria. Should it swing resources there,concentrate on winning Chisholm (which Liberals agree is vulnerable) or on holding Dunkley and Corangamite (which Labor concedes are vulnerable),or aim for Casey,following Speaker Tony Smith’s announcement he is retiring?
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In each seat polled by Climate 200,climate change was listed as the number one issue of concern to voters,well ahead of management of the pandemic and of the economy. Without a name attached,an independent candidate could expect to garner from 7.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent of the vote.
Voters were then asked how they would vote if there was an independent candidate of the calibre of Warringah’s Zali Steggall or Indi’s Helen Haines. In Flinders,where doubt remains that Hunt will recontest,the expected vote jumped to 24.3 per cent,in Goldstein 28.5 per cent and in Kooyong 26.3 per cent.
Liberal voting intention dropped markedly once respondents were asked about voting for an independent like Steggall/Haines. In Flinders it fell by 8.7 per cent to 28 per cent,in Goldstein by 9.6 per cent to 28.5 and in Kooyong,by 8.5 per cent to 25.9 per cent.
So an “independent like Steggall/Haines” is behind,but competitive in Flinders,level pegging in Goldstein and ahead in Kooyong.
The trick is to find suitable candidates. In North Sydney in mid-September when businesswoman Kylea Tink declared she would run as an independent,she had a list of 300 supporters. She now has more than 1000,more than enough to man booths on election day.
It’s enough to make the major parties go green. Literally. One Labor frontbencher reckons if that happened in his seat,he would be accused of branch stacking.
A candidate will be announced soon to run against energy minister Angus Taylor in Hume and Holmes à Court has been asked to consider running in Kooyong. He remains reluctant. While there are a couple of other possibilities,the Kooyong Independents Group will cast the net wider this weekend by advertising for candidates. That is how Steggall was found for Warringah.
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The money keeps rolling in. In 10 weeks the group has raised $3.2 million from 4000 donors. At the last election they raised $500,000.
Holmes à Court says it’s driven by dissatisfaction with the government over the issues the independents will campaign on – climate change,integrity and the treatment and safety of women – and confidently predicts Morrison’s “plan” is so bad it will make things worse for the government,not better.
Niki Savva is a regular columnist.
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