Premier Daniel Andrews said he would “not be taking anything for granted” on election day,predicting a tight result.

“The margin on paper doesn’t matter,” he said on Wednesday,promising to focus on jobs,service delivery and building infrastructure.

Labor and Liberal internal polling suggests the government has lost support in outer-suburban areas badly affected by coronavirus lockdowns.

The latest Resolve poll suggests growing numbers of voters are leaning to the independents and minor parties.

Support for the Greens continues to hover near 10 per cent,while more than one-fifth (21 per cent) of voters said they would either support an independent or another minor party,up from 17 per cent at the last poll and 11 per cent at the 2018 state election.

Opposition Leader Matthew Guy on Wednesday said voters’ feelings were “mixed” and depended on “what week,what day,what time you go in and ask them”.

“I don’t think there’s a clear mood,” he said,adding that he was not “Nostradamus” and would not be making election predictions.

Despite the loss of primary support for Labor,Mr Andrews remains relatively popular.

Almost half of voters (48 per cent) surveyed in February and March backed him as preferred premier – a similar result to the previous poll. That places Mr Andrews 17 percentage points above Mr Guy,who was backed by 31 per cent of voters as preferred premier.

Resolve founder Jim Reed said Mr Guy appeared to be pressing home his attacks on Labor and had made ground on his “likeability” rating.

The state opposition has,among other issues,zeroed in on Victoria’s hospital system,which is struggling to cope with a backlog of elective surgery patients,the parlous state of the emergency call service,the imposition of state taxes and high levels of public debt.

Mr Reed also suggested a decision by the government to announce – and then within days scrap – a levy on property developers that was supposed to pay for extra social housing,could have influenced the result.

Only 22 per cent of voters surveyed said the outlook for Victoria had improved,down from 24 per cent in the previous poll,while 51 per cent predicted there would be no change,up from 46 per cent.

Jacqueline Maley cuts through the noise of the federal election campaign with news,views and expert analysis.Sign up to our Australia Votes 2022 newsletter here.