I was national campaign director of the Yes campaign in 1999,led by Malcolm Turnbull,who would go on to become prime minister. I saw up close how difficult it is for a referendum to pass in this nation. Only eight of 44 of attempts to change the constitution have been successful since 1901. It is a hard ask because to win you need a national majority of voters and a majority of voters in at least four of the six states.
But in 1999 a major hurdle for our case was the vehement opposition of the then prime minister John Howard. He had been stuck with the commitment of the Liberal Party,when it won office in 1996,to hold a referendum on an Australian head of state,something pushed by Howard’s predecessor Paul Keating. Howard campaigned against a republic,as did many of his ministers.
A group headed by former Liberal Party director Andrew Robb,which gathered conservative voices in support of a republic,the contributions of other members of Howard’s cabinet,and former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Fraser was not enough to counter the Howard influence.
This time around it is likely to be Albanese who pushes the republic cause,which should assist the yes case. But let’s not underestimate opposition from the opposition,if only to inflict political damage on the prime minister.
But perhaps the most potent elements of the campaign in 1999 to keep the British monarchy in Australia were,first,division among republicans,second,the line that the republic was a matter for “elites”,and,most damaging of all in my view,the idea that what was proposed was a “politicians’ republic”.
The division was caused by those republicans who supported a president directly elected by the people. This group included former federal Independent MPs Ted Mack and Phil Cleary. They joined the Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy group to oppose the parliamentary election model. Division is death in politics,as they say,and in this case it was true. Cleary,Mack and others were able to argue that the model on offer was not “democratic” and they reflected the mood in the electorate,which was opposed to giving politicians more power.