The findings are part of a new Resolve Political Monitor survey,conducted exclusively forThe Age by research company Resolve Strategic,which also reveals Victorians continue to reject the major parties,with 31 per cent of voters intending to support the Greens,minor parties or independent candidates in next month’s election – the same level as the Coalition’s primary vote.
However,preferences are flowing strongly back to Labor,who voters say have made mistakes but have strong leadership,with the government ahead 59 to 41 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis – pointing to a potential landslide next month.
If the two-party preferred vote is replicated on election day,the Coalition would be at risk of losing more seats. Monash University Associate Professor Paul Strangio said the data “paints an extraordinarily bleak picture for the Coalition”.
“[The Coalition’s] primary vote is also down since 2018 to a level where it is a long way short of being competitive in the coming election. Indeed,if that vote was replicated at November’s election the Coalition would likely lose seats,” he said.
The Victorian poll of more than 800 voters,taken from October 20 to 24,shows Andrews also leads Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 49 per cent to 29,a slightly bigger margin than the last poll in September.
Resolve director Jim Reed said Andrews was in “pole position” to win a third term for Labor,and the government was “unlikely to go backwards” in terms of lower house seats.