Rudd’s appointment will be welcome in America,where he is highly regarded. He has,for the past two years,been the president of the Asia Society – the most influential foreign policy think tank on Asian affairs. His knowledge of the Indo-Pacific,and of China in particular,is widely acknowledged and greatly respected.
One small but revealing recent example of Rudd’s reputation is the decision by the Council on Foreign Relations – the inner sanctum of the East Coast foreign policy establishment – to choose Rudd to write the lead article forthe recent edition ofForeign Affairs,which was devoted entirely to commentary on China.Foreign Affairs is the most influential organ of the American foreign policy community;the journal of choice in which,over the years,thought leaders such as George Kennan and Henry Kissinger chose to publish.
AsI argued in this newspaper two months ago,at a time when the question of how to deal with China is the most important single issue facing America’s political leaders and policymakers,it is in Australia’s interests to have as our ambassador someone whom they acknowledge as one of the most authoritative analysts of Chinese foreign policy in the English-speaking world. It guarantees Australia will have an influential voice in every important discussion about China,and the Indo-Pacific more generally. While we might hope that would be the case anyway,it cannot be taken for granted. Washington is as tough a town as they come;a middle power like Australia has to earn its place in the inner sanctums of policymaking by bringing something of value to the table. This,Rudd can certainly do.
Never has that been more important than right now,in the early shaping days of the AUKUS pact. AUKUS was a huge diplomatic achievement and a strategic game-changer for Australia. But we are,by far,the smallest among the three participating nations. It is crucial that the complex decisions that will be taken within the AUKUS framework in the coming months and years – not just the selection of submarine type,but the choice of other projects among the so-called “Pillar 2” AUKUS capabilities (AI,hypersonics,quantum computing,undersea warfare and others) – be those most beneficial to Australia.
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Then there are other complexities,such as operational protocols,assignment of intellectual property,and negotiating the suspension of the US regulations that restrict the sale of armaments (“ITARs”) which are inconsistent with seamless co-operation among the three AUKUS nations. Australia has to have the influence within the American system to ensure that we are not overwhelmed by the sheer weight of the US side and made subservient to its preferences. It will take a strong ambassador,whose knowledge and authority Washington will respect,to do that.