The report,commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation,found even if no new fossil fuel projects start up,the greenhouse emissions from coal mines as well as gas plants and processing facilities will remain constant over the coming decade,which is contrary to the government’s assumptions.
“Emissions from existing coal and gas facilities show no sign of declining,” ERI’s report said. “Without further intervention,these facilities will dramatically exceed their share of the emissions budget allowable for the federal government to reach its climate goals.”
The federal government has committed to cutting emissions by 43 per cent by 2030. A government policy paper assumes the safeguard mechanism,which will put emissions caps on the 215 biggest industrial polluters,including coal mines,gas processing plants,aluminium smelters and cement producers,will deliver about 13 million tonnes of emissions reductions a year. Modelling by independent firm Reputex,which analysed the Albanese government’s climate target ahead of the May election,calculated a 22 million tonne reduction.
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The institute trawled the list of current and future plans for Australia’s coal mines,gas fields and processing facilities and found while coal mine closures could reduce annual emissions by 8 million tonnes,gas processing would chug along creating roughly 33 million tonnes each year from now until the end of the decade.
It also calculated the emissions from a short list of the probable new gas projects,which the proponents say will go ahead in the near future,including Woodside’s Scarborough field in Western Australia and Santos’ Barossa field in the Northern Territory,as well as Adani Group’s Carmichael coal project in Queensland.
The institute found these projects alone would add between 12 million tonnes and 24 million tonnes a year to the emissions budget.