The government had to balance a number of competing priorities and reconcile potentially inconsistent objectives. The measures announced by United States President Joe Biden,United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are as successful in doing so as the circumstances allow.
The dilemma for AUKUS was one of capacity and delivery times. It was essential that Australia acquire this capability at the earliest opportunity. Yet the project faced supply-side difficulties from both our partners. If the subs were to be sourced from the US,we faced capacity constraints within their shipyards,at a time when America is increasing its demand for the vessels.
The UK,which operates a much smaller fleet,is not subject to the same capacity constraints. However,the different economies of scale mean its production facility at Barrow is much slower than the US,and it would not be in a position to supply us until the 2040s.
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That problem was unlocked by the adoption of a hybrid solution,whereby a small number (currently three) Virginia-class submarines would be supplied in the 2030s,while Australia and the UK would jointly produce the remaining vessels through to the 2050s,incorporating American propulsion and weapons systems.
In the meantime,beginning in 2027,American Virginia and UK Astute-class submarines would rotate through Stirling naval base in Western Australia,while the existing Collins-class submarines would continue to operate into the late 2030s.
The hybrid model also addressed (or at least mitigated) the issue of long-term political risk. As Iargued in this column previously,while there is no doubt about the long-term willingness of future British governments,Conservative or Labour,to partner with us in building the subs,the American political system presents immensely more complexities and uncertainties,not least with the growing strength of isolationism on the American right.