Federal government modelling suggests the transmission-suppressing effect of vaccination and prior infection has fallen from 60 per cent in Victoria in March 2022 to just 12 per cent now. NSW has seen a similar fall.
That modelling uses Omicron-based data:the variants circulating now are even more immune evasive,meaning the true number is likely to be even lower.
“One thing I think we can clearly say now is:current vaccination policies don’t have an effect on community-wide transmission,” says Associate Professor James Trauer,head of Monash University’s epidemiological modelling unit.
“We’re using vaccination as a way to protect those at high risk – particularly the elderly – against severe outcomes resulting from COVID infection,rather than from COVID infection itself.”
John Connell,a 41-year-old school facilities manager,received his third and fourth boosters when they were offered,but won’t be getting a fifth.
“I initially bought into the doing the right thing and protecting the vulnerable,” he says. “I have had COVID twice and shaken it off without any long-term symptoms – and am no longer afraid.”