However,the federal government’s latest export forecasts,to be released on Monday,suggest the decline in the value of fossil fuel exports over the next two years could be severe.
The government cites the impact of rising interest rates on global economic growth,an improvement in supply conditions,and a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in China,the biggest market for raw materials,as savings amassed by Chinese households during the pandemic appear smaller than in Western countries.
“Australian energy export earnings are set to fall noticeably,” the Department of Industry,Science and Resources says in a report.
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Sales of Australian thermal coal,the typeburned in power stations,reached $64 billion in the past 12 months but are now likely to face the sharpest decline of Australia’s resource exports. The government is assuming a 40 per cent fall in thermal coal’s earnings to $38 billion in 2023-24.
Metallurgical coal,which is used to make steel in giant furnaces,is tipped to bring in 30 per cent less revenue,dropping from $60 billion to $42 billion.
Exports ofliquified natural gas,which hit $92 billion in the past year on the back of record-high prices as Europe raced for alternatives to Russia’s pipelines,could fall 26 per cent to $68 billion,according to the forecasts.