Hospital admissions expected to decline even if COVID-19 cases rise

Experts say COVID-19 case numbers in the coming days will be crucial to understanding how the virus is spreading in reopened NSW,but high vaccination coverage should see hospital admissions continue to decline.

NSW recorded 333 new cases on Saturday,with all but one acquired in the community. Across the state,469 people are in hospital,with 123 in intensive care. Two deaths were reported on Saturday.

Professor Catherine Bennett is the chair of epidemiology at Deakin University,.

Professor Catherine Bennett is the chair of epidemiology at Deakin University,.Jason South

Chair of epidemiology at Deakin University,Catherine Bennett,toldThe Sun-Herald that nearly two weeks on from the end of lockdown the reproduction rate of the virus had risen to 1.3,but it would take another week until the new infection rate settles.

“By the middle of next month theoretically if it kept going at this 1.3[reproduction rate] you could push up to the high hundreds again,but your hospitalisations would still be coming down,” she said.

“It might only take a couple of weeks to get back up,and I’m not going to give specific numbers and I don’t want to alarm people,but the way the reproductive number is at the moment at 1.3 that means there could be a reasonable climb in case numbers.“

However,Professor Bennett said it was possible for the reproduction number to stabilise again if hotspot areas such as Albury were contained. Regardless,she said a rise in cases should not alarm people.

“The point is case numbers have levelled out,they may climb - they’re looking like they’re starting to climb now - but this is about putting that wedge between case numbers and hospitalisations,” she said.

“As long as that’s firmly in place,which is what vaccine protection gives you at a population level,then a rise in numbers shouldn’t translate to a rise in hospitalisations.”

In NSW,92.8 per cent of eligible people have received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine,and 83.7 per cent of people over 16 are now fully vaccinated.

Victoria reported 1748 new local cases of COVID-19 and nine deaths on Saturday after the state celebrated its first day out of lockdown on Friday. Of the 770 people in hospital with the virus in Victoria,144 are in intensive care and 90 are on a ventilator.

Professor Gregory Dore,an epidemiologist from the Kirby Institute,also toldThe Sun-Herald he expected cases to rise at some point in coming weeks,but hospitalisations should remain low.

Professor Bennett also said it was encouraging that the number of hospital admissions and people being cared for in intensive care was already coming down.

“Your ICU admissions are just coming down towards half of where they were at their peak … and likewise hospitalisations are getting closer to a third,"she said.

NSW Health’s Dr Jeremy McAnulty urged revellers to celebrate Halloween next week in a COVID-safe way.

Booster vaccines are likely to be rolled out November 8,Deputy Chief Medical Officer Michael Kidd says.

“Aim to keep the celebration outside,provide closed packaging for treats,and instead of communal lolly bowls,consider other ways to distribute the treats,” he said.

“Don’t share facemasks or costume face masks,and stay home and don’t participate if you’re feeling unwell with any symptoms at all.”

On Friday night,police charged a 20-year-old man at The Star Casino in Pyrmont for wearing a black balaclava instead of a facemask required under the Public Health Order.

It is alleged that the 19-year-old spat at arresting officers and two other men became involved in the fracas,with one allegedly punching a police officer in the chest.

All three were taken to Surry Hills Police Station and charged,then granted conditional bail to appear at the Downing Centre Local Court in December.

Professor Bennett said maintaining public health safety measures,such as wearing masks indoors and getting tested when symptomatic,were still crucially important to making sure case numbers remain manageable.

“If you’ve got 10,000 cases your hospitalisations will go up again. But if you can keep it below a thousand cases,and you’ve got low hospitalisation rates because of the[vaccine] coverage then you’re in a good position,” she said.

Stay across the most crucial developments related to the pandemic with the Coronavirus Update.Sign up to receive the weekly newsletter.

Cameron Gooley is a Gamilaroi man and the Indigenous affairs reporter at the Sydney Morning Herald.

Most Viewed in National