Australia’s changing population will result in both NSW and Victoria losing a seat and Western Australia gaining one,after the Australian Electoral Commission announced on Thursday it would redraw the boundaries to reduce parliament’s lower house by one seat to 150.
The number of seats in each state is determined by their share of the nation’s overall population,except in Tasmania,which is constitutionally guaranteed five electorates. Within states and territories,the electoral commission attempts to have the same number of voters in each seat.
A slump in population growth during the COVID-19 pandemic in NSW and Victoria and a surge in WA have forced the electoral commission into the redistribution in the three states.
Election analyst William Bowe said scrutiny would be on the seats with the lowest enrolments,which places the focus on inner-suburban electorates with static populations.
He said the boundaries of Goldstein and Kooyong – two former blue-ribbon Melbourne seats snatched by the in the last election – could change,and envisaged a scenario where the latter spread further east to capture part of Chisholm,a seat lost by the Liberals to Labor in 2022.
The Liberal Party will try to win back Kooyong,which last year. Bowe said a shift in Kooyong’s boundary could pose a challenge for Ryan due to the change in demographics.
He expected six electorates in Melbourne’s east to become five,and nominated one of Chisholm or Higgins – held by and Dr respectively – to go in the redistribution,as they were 2.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent below the enrolment average of 118,000 voters per electorate.
“If I had to take a punt which seat they would abolish,it would be Chisholm,but there are many ways they[the AEC] can do this,” he said.
In NSW,Bowe nominated the Liberal-held seats of Berowra and Bradfield,whose respective enrolment figures were 9.7 per cent and 7.7 per cent below the average.
The neighbouring seats on Sydney’s upper north shore are represented by moderate figures over his support for an Indigenous Voice to parliament – and. Merging the two electorates would trigger a preselection war in Liberal heartland.
Bowe also said there was a potential for Wentworth,in Sydney’s eastern suburbs,which is 12 per cent below the enrolment average,to be pushed further into the seat of Sydney held by Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek.
In WA,which lost an electorate before last year’s poll,a new seat is expected to be created in Perth’s south-eastern suburbs.
As well as population figures,the electoral commission’s redistribution process considers geographical boundaries and the history of each seat.
While shifting boundaries can give political parties extra ground,changing demographics can also upset their voter base,which in turn can result in seats changing hands come election time.
“In a sense,it’s a question of what names are being preserved,but realistically we’ve got a game of musical chairs,we’ve got X number of seats up in the air,” Bowe said.
The AEC,which will take public submissions on possible boundaries,will make a final decision on the nation’s electoral map in the second half of next year.
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