Female candidates are also a key part of Mr Morrison’s strategy,with the Prime Minister telling parliamentary colleagues and party operatives he is determined to increase the number of Liberal women in Parliament.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison takes centre stage at Ampol’s Lytton refinery on Monday.Dominic Lorrimer
The Sun-Herald andThe Sunday Age spoke to 11 senior MPs and party officials in battleground states across the country about how the Liberals are preparing for the next election,which is due between August this year and May 2022.
In January,Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese that Labor is eyeing as its path to victory. Queensland regularly plays a key role in who wins federal elections because of the state’s propensity to swing big.
The Liberal National Party holds 23 of 30 seats in Queensland and,aside from having an outside chance in the south-eastern seats of Blair and Lilley,Liberal strategists describe what is broadly a defensive “hold” strategy in the state.
One veteran Liberal strategist said:“NSW is the key battleground. We are at a high watermark in Queensland so holding onto what we have is the focus.”
The two LNP-held seats in Queensland considered most vulnerable are Bowman,where Andrew Laming is stepping down and Flynn,where Ken O’Dowd is stepping down.
Mr Morrison visited three Liberal seats in Melbourne,two in Tasmania and five in Queensland last week – but it is NSW where party strategists believe they will win or lose the election.
The Coalition holds just 21 of 47 seats in the state and has the following 10 Labor-held seats on its radar:Macquarie (0.2 per cent margin),Eden-Monaro (0.5 per cent),Dobell (1.5 per cent),Gilmore (2.7 per cent),Greenway (2.8 per cent),Hunter (3 per cent),Parramatta (3.6 per cent),Richmond (4.1 per cent) and Shortland (4.5 per cent).
Paterson,on a 5.1 per cent margin,is also on the list of target seats,while party insiders believe they are likely to regain Hughes from former Liberal Craig Kelly.
Nominations for a slew of NSW seats were still being finalised on Saturday but likely nominees in some of the key target seats included Sarah Richards in Macquarie and Nell McGill in Shortland – both of whom ran last time – and solicitor and former Liberal staffer Brooke Vitnell in Paterson.
The contest in Dobell is said to be between former Test cricketer Nathan Bracken and businesswoman Jemima Gleeson.
Nominations for Eden-Monaro and Warringah have not opened yet but both seats also have female candidates as front runners – Fiona Kotvojs in the former,and state MP Natalie Ward and lawyer Jane Buncle among a Melbourne Cup-field in the latter.
Strategists acknowledge it will be difficult to win back Warringah from independent Zali Steggall,who defeated former member Tony Abbott with a significant swing.
Party officials for Labor and the Coalition point out that Mr Morrison’s personal standing in NSW is strong – an observation reflected in theHerald’s most recent Resolve Political Monitor poll – though the two party’s primary votes are tighter than the national average in the state.
A NSW Liberal MP familiar with party strategy heading into the next election said that Mr Albanese was “our biggest asset in NSW” in what was shaping up as a presidential “Scott vs Albo” election,adding:“We might have a chance in Queensland in one or two seats[but] it will come down to NSW.”
The government currently holds 76 seats in the 151 member lower house. A Liberal operative said the government’s target was to win a total of 80 seats off the back of gains in NSW that outstrip the loss of a handful of seats elsewhere,and claim a working majority in government for what would be a fourth term in power.
Elsewhere,the Tasmanian seat of Lyons is also a Coalition target. They believe there is an outside chance of winning Corangamite and Dunkley back from Labor in Victoria while holding Chisholm,and they hope to hold on to Boothby in South Australia.