He has not been going just for fun.
The seat suddenly looks winnable for the Liberals’ Maria Kovacic,a businesswoman and co-founder of Western Sydney Women. Retiring Labor MP Julie Owens had her margin slashed in 2019 from 7.67 per cent to 3.5 per cent - a swing of the same size would see the government pick it up this time.
While much attention has been paid to the Liberals’ struggles against ‘teal’ independents in inner-city Wentworth and North Sydney (),in Sydney’s west the dynamics of this election are far from settled.
The “status quo” result of the 2019 election papers over the significant gains the Coalition made in many western Sydney seats. In Lindsay,Melissa McIntosh secured a 6.15 per cent swing to win the seat from Labor;there were also big moves away from Labor in safe seats like McMahon,Chifley and Blaxland.
Was it because they disliked Bill Shorten? Was it a backlash from religious voters,as Chris Bowen suggested? Did they actually embrace Scott Morrison,or just give him a go? Having done so,what will be their verdict after three years? And will they respond in the same way to a campaign that is very similar to the one Morrison served up last time?
If the national opinion polls are correct and the swing is distributed evenly,Labor will claw back 2019’s losses and win a handful of seats,including Reid and Robertson,to form government. But swings are rarely even,and seats on Sydney’s fringes may deliver more than one surprise.
Parramatta has become a must-win seat for the Coalition,especially as the adjacent seat of Reid,around Strathfield,Concord and Drummoyne,is widely considered lost to Labor.
Morrison’s appearances in Reid have been incidental;once for the Easter Show and again for.
A Liberal insider said of the party’s internal research on Parramatta:“The interest in the seat is a barometer that the polling for us is sound.”
A Labor loss there would be an embarrassing repudiation of Anthony Albanese’s decision to parachute Kevin Rudd’s former economic adviser Andrew Charlton across the city from Bellevue Hill as Labor’s “star” candidate.
In a “gotcha” moment that may nonetheless prove telling,Charlton struggled to name three local restaurants when pressed by a reporter fromIndian Link News this week (though two out of three ain’t bad for a newcomer).
Similarly,in the Cabramatta seat of Fowler,Labor has controversially selected another outsider:shadow home affairs minister and former NSW premier Kristina Keneally,who moved to the seat from Pittwater’s Scotland Island.
Liberals are hopeful could pip Keneally at the post on Liberal preferences. Le,a former Liberal,is backed by high-profile ex-Labor mayor Frank Carbone.
A troika of western Sydney Liberals,including Fowler candidate Courtney Nguyen,launched their campaigns on Thursday night at Cabra-vale Diggers,drawing Foreign Minister Marise Payne,state ministers Damien Tudehope and Mark Coure,and Liverpool councillor Ned Mannoun to the event.
“I don’t think Fowler is going to be decided on election night,” said Mannoun,who was optimistic Le could cause an upset. “What happens in this neck of the woods will be interesting to watch.”
Labor sources,meanwhile,remained confident. While Le was a “formidable candidate” and “no one thinks it’s a walkover”,Keneally was a well-known figure and is campaigning hard.
Reid is likely to be close,but most Liberals are treating it as something approaching a lost cause. Bennelong,where sitting MP John Alexander is retiring,is a 50-50 proposition,one Liberal said. The government holds it by a margin of nearly 7 per cent and it has only been won by Labor once,when Maxine McKew beat John Howard.
Preferences will be vital,and Labor negotiated to be above the Liberals in both Reid and Bennelong. NSW Labor would be buoyed by this week’s Resolve Strategic poll for theHerald which found,at 38 per cent.
The Richmond and Blue Mountains seat of Macquarie,held by Labor,is in play courtesy of its wafer-thin 0.19 per cent margin,although Labor is confident Susan Templeman will improve upon that. A Labor campaign source said the Liberals had “definitely taken a hit on their primary” in the seat.
Hughes,in the city’s south,is a bit of a wildcard courtesy of incumbent MP Craig Kelly defecting to the UAP. Polling data leaked toThe Australian this week gave Liberal Jenny Ware a primary vote of 37 per cent and Kelly single digits;one Liberal with knowledge of the seat said that sounded right.
Sometimes it is instructive to see what the betting markets show (sometimes it’s also completely useless). They are leaning heavily toward incumbents,with Kennedy short odds to hold Bennelong for the Liberals,Keneally easily retaining Fowler for Labor,and Templeman comfortably home and hosed in Macquarie.
In the central coast seat of Robertson,the money is pretty much split between Liberal MP Lucy Wicks and Labor challenger Gordon Reid. Reid is a local emergency doctor,straight out of Labor’s successful playbook in February’s Bega byelection,where obstetrician Michael Holland trounced Fiona Kotvojs.
On the south coast,former NSW transport minister Andrew Constance is widely considered a good chance to win back Gilmore for the Liberals,though the bookies still have Labor’s Fiona Phillips as a slight favourite.
Additional reporting by Jacqueline Maley
Cut through the noise of the federal election campaign with news,views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley.