NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman.James Brickwood
Labor’s primary vote in NSW has slipped to 34 per cent,down three points compared with the state election and a hefty 10 points lower than poll results in May last year. It is the first time Labor’s primary vote has fallen below the Coalition’s in NSW since September 2022.
The Coalition’s primary vote climbed to 38 per cent,up six points compared with November,despite having a relatively new Liberal leader with low name recognition. The Liberal-National primary vote was 35.4 per cent when it was defeated in last year’s election.
Premier Chris Minns holds a clear lead over Opposition Leader Mark Speakman as preferred premier (35 per cent to 16 per cent). But as theHerald’s state political editor Alexandra Smith reports,a massive 49 per cent of NSW voters are undecided about who they would prefer to lead the state.
Minns has been a hard-working and likeable premier and is a sure-footed public performer. But for such a large proportion of voters to be undecided about his leadership after nearly a year in office is a worrying sign for Labor.
At the last election the Coalition lost 10 seats as voters dispatched the Liberal-National government after 12 years in office. But the ALP did not receive a ringing endorsement. It fell just short of an outright parliamentary majority and must rely on the support of independents to govern.
The latest poll suggests the electorate is still quite ambivalent about Labor and many voters are unsure of what the Minns government stands for.
Labor came to power at a difficult moment. High inflation and rising interest rates during 2022 and 2023 caused the worst cost-of-living crunch in decades.
Those cost-of-living pressures were at the but,as Labor has discovered,the capacity of state governments to provide meaningful relief is quite limited. The sustained financial pressure on millions of household budgets helps explain the NSW government’s loss of support.
Jim Reed,the director of the Resolve Political Monitor,says,“it’s a bad time to be an incumbent everywhere”.
A string of controversies involving Labor ministers,including one resignation and have also sapped voter confidence and raised questions about the quality of Minns’ front bench. The minority Labor government cannot afford these distractions,especially given the impropriety and turmoil that bedevilled the ALP when it was last in power.
Like most new governments,Labor has spent a lot of time blaming its predecessor for problems facing the state. But after nearly a year in office that message is clearly wearing thin.
Meanwhile,economic conditions in NSW are deteriorating. Unemployment in the state hit 4.1 per cent in January,the highest in two years. The number of unemployed people in NSW has reached 186,000 – the highest since November 2021 when the state was recovering from the shock of pandemic lockdowns.
The NSW state budget has been in the red for the past four years and another deep deficit is forecast this financial year. A sharper than expected economic slowdown could further undermine voter confidence in the Minns government.
As,the Minns government ordered numerous inquiries during its first few months in office. It has identified some important policy aims,especially its commitment to improve housing affordability.
But NSW voters expect more.
The message for the Minns government from the Resolve Political Monitor is clear:it’s time to deliver. If they don’t,voters will continue to turn away.
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