What happens if no one wins the election?

In Australia,we’re used to elections being a race between two parties vying to win a majority of seats in the parliament. But in the NSW state election,there’s a twist:both the Coalition and Laborheaded to the March 25 polls without a majority in parliament.

With 46 seats in parliament – one short of a majority – the Coalition government has survived with the support of a group of independents. Labor,with 38 seats,is starting from further back in the field,and the most recent Resolve Political Monitorshows the race will be extremely tight.

So,what is minority government? What would either party have to do to form government? And would it be a recipe for chaos and confusion?

What’s a hung parliament (and what’s minority government)?

A hung parliament is the outcome of an election where no one wins a majority. This means a party can form government only with the support of independents or minor parties. A government formed from this negotiation process is called a minority government.

Minority governments occur in about a third of parliamentary democracies worldwide,according to British academics Bonnie N. Field and Shane Martin. It is less common in the Westminster system of parliament used in the United Kingdom,Canada and Australia,where the roles of government and opposition are clearly defined.

“When you have that government and opposition duality,it’s logical that you have a two-party system because one is in opposition and one is in government,and they rotate through that cycle,” says David Clune,an honorary associate at the University of Sydney who was previously a historian for the NSW parliament.

It does,nonetheless,happen:recent examples include Justin Trudeau’s minority government in Canada,the UK’s Conservative government under Theresa May between 2017 and 2019,and Australia’s Labor government under Julia Gillard after the 2010 federal election.

Have we had a hung parliament in NSW?

There are 93 seats in the NSW lower house,called the Legislative Assembly. This means that either Labor or the Coalition need at least 47 seats to form majority government.

The last NSW election to result in a hung parliament was in 1991,when Liberal premier Nick Greiner called an early election expecting to win comfortably. Instead,he ended up with a minority,and had to rely on the support of independents to form government. Before that,Labor twice formed minority government out of a hung parliament;once in 1920 and again in 1950,when it depended on the support of two former Labor MPs to stay in office.

The Coalition under former premier Gladys Berejiklian won a slim majority at the 2019 election,but that was quickly eroded after three MPs resigned in the first half of 2021,plunging them into minority government with 45 seats (they eventually regained one in a byelection).Taking into the account recent redistributions of electoral boundaries,this leaves the Coalition with 46 seats going into the 2023 election.

How do you get from a hung parliament to minority government?

The members of parliament who don’t belong to either major party are called crossbenchers. If there is a hung parliament,both parties need to convince enough of these crossbenchers tosupport their side and form government. There are a lot of them right now:with three Greens and nine independents,this is the largest crossbench in NSW since 1904.

How easily an agreement is reached depends on the demands of each independent. Some look to leverage their position and pledge their support in exchange for something they want. This might be a policy on a single issue,or concessions for their electorate.

Independents with the balance of power can join together and form an agenda that rises above simple ‘horse-trading’.

Clune says independents with the balance of power can join together and form an agenda that rises above simple “horse-trading” or favours for votes. In the 1991 hung parliament in NSW,for example,John Hatton,Peter Macdonald and Clover Moore (now Sydney lord mayor) gave Greiner a charter of reforms to agree to as a condition of their support.

“They then negotiated an agreement with the government where,in return for the implementation of the charter of reform,the independents guarantee to support the government on confidence and supply motions,” Clune says.

How long this negotiation process takes depends on how the independents play their hand,Clune says. In 1991,for example,parliament resumed five weeks after the election with the Coalition remaining in government,but negotiations with the three independents continued for months. After the 2010 federal election,it took Julia Gillard more than two weeks to finally secure the backing of independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott and form minority government.

Who would be key players in a NSW minority government?

Moore’s political mentee,progressive independent Alex Greenwich,is the kingmaker in the current minority government. He has given his support to the Coalition while pushing them on important progressive issues such as ensuring abortion was removed from the Crimes Act and voluntary assisted dying was legalised. If re-elected,he has promised to push the Coalition or Labor toban gay conversion practicesin the next parliament.

“Each party,whether it’s the Greens or the independents,will have[certain] things they can’t support.”

Independent MP Greg Piper

While Greenwich and fellow independents Greg Piper and Joe McGirr have been an important cornerstone of support for Dominic Perrottet’s government,that support isn’t guaranteed. Piper,who represents Lake Macquarie,says his first instinct would be to side with the party which won the most seats as long as their policies were acceptable to him.

For example,Piper says he would never support a party with a policy such as the so-called “Barilaro Brumbies Bill” protecting wild horses in Kosciuszko National Park. McGirr has made abolishing the controversial bill a condition of his support.

“It’s not carte blanche,” Piper says. “Each party,whether it’s the Greens or the independents,will have[certain] things they can’t support.”

Gambling reform,housing affordability and the environment are key statewide issues that would decide Piper’s vote. If he was part of a crossbench with the balance of power,he would also look to push for priority issues in his electorate such as outreach health services.

“If I have that extra lever,of course I’m going to use it,” he says.

Some crossbenchers are more likely to support one party than the other,Clune says. The Greens,for example,would steer towards supporting Labor regardless of the election outcome while Helen Dalton,Philip Donato and Roy Butler,all formerly of the Shooters,Fishers and Farmers Party,would probably side with the Coalition.

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“That means there’s three in either camp to start with,” Clune says. “But if some of them band together and form a charter of reform,and they want the government to agree to that to keep him in office,it can be a very complicated process.”

That process might be further complicated if the “teal wave”,where six climate-conscious independents won seats at last year’s federal election,is replicated on March 25. Independent candidates backed by Climate 200 are running in key Liberal seats including Pittwater,Manly and North Shore. Their policies differ slightly,but teal independent Jacqui Scruby,for example,is running for the electorate of Pittwater on a platform of climate action and government integrity,which were key issues for the teals at the federal election. But with stringent state election funding caps and optional preferential voting,repeating that federal success in NSW will be much more difficult. In Victoria’s recent state election,where strict funding caps also applied,teals failed to flip seats in seven electorates.

So,would a hung parliament (and a minority government) necessarily be a bad thing?

At the last federal election,former prime minister Scott Morrison said a hung parliament would be a recipe for chaos and confusion. But Piper says a large crossbench can be an important check on government power.

Clune says the success of a minority government depends on who has the balance of power. If independents and minor parties are obstructive,the government can’t implement its policy with any certainty. But if the crossbenchers work constructively with the government,they can use their position of power toleverage positive reforms.

“When you’ve got sensible independents and crossbenchers controlling the lower house,the government can’t just steamroll legislation through,” he says. “In that situation,the legislative process does work more or less as it should work.”

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