Expert breakdown of NRL Round 4 matches

Eels (16) v Panthers (5)

Thursday,8pm,CommBank Stadium

A tale of two grand finalists with the desperate Eels trying toavoid a 0-4 start to the year following their fairytale run to last year’s decider.

Eels coach Brad Arthur admits Ryan Matterson's decision to accept a ban rather than a fine was not ideal.

CoachBrad Arthur said he still hasn’t watched the game,and why would he? No team on the planetwould have beaten Penrith that night,and an added hurdle for the Eels is a fresh Panthers side coming off the bye.Ryan Mattersonis back from suspension for the Eels after initially refusing to pay a $4000 fine for a crusher tackle onDylan Edwards in the decider,while hookerBrendan Hands has been named for an NRL debut off the bench to helpJosh Hodgson.Jack Murchie (concussion) is out for the Eels,while the Panthers will getScott Sorensen back from his own head knock.Panthers by 8.
Adam Pengilly

Storm (13) v Wests Tigers (17)

Friday,6pm,AAMI Park

Adam Doueihi’s shift to fullback andBrandon Wakeham’s move to the halves will hopefully finally spark the Wests Tigers. Theyburst to life against the Dogs late,but it was a case of too little too late,and the first hour was awful to watch. Doueihi andLuke Brooks both love to run but are not natural organisers,which is why Wakeham might work. The return ofIsaiah Papali’i andseeing John Bateman second-up is a huge plus. The Stormlose Jahrome Hughes but pick upCam Munster. TheEli Katoa-Papali’i back-row match-up will be a belter.Storm by 2.
Christian Nicolussi

Dolphins (2) v Broncos (1)

Friday,8pm,Suncorp Stadium

Don King himself couldn’t have dreamed up a better promotional run-up for this one.Wayne Bennett wouldn’t have dreamed of a 3-0 start either for a Dolphins side short on star power,but big on the fundamentals.

The Newcastle Knights host the Dolphins in Round 3 of the 2023 NRL Premiership.

Kevin Walters too has silenced the noise around a roster dripping with talent but carrying off-field baggage,plenty of their own making.Adam Reynolds is the key in this contest,having kept Brisbane in itagainst the Dragons with his judicious kicking beforePayne Haas,Pat Carrigan andReece Walsh took charge. Tipping more of the same as the Dolphins keep them honest before Brisbane’s brilliance keeps them atop the ladder.Broncos by 10.

Dan Walsh

Cowboys (15) v Titans (6)

Saturday,5.30pm,Queensland Country Bank Stadium

And now for the other,other Queensland derby. No teams better exemplify the topsy-turvy nature of the opening rounds than these two. The Gold Coast are coming offa win over Melbourne,but it’s too early to determine just how big a deal it is to beat the Storm in 2023.

Nicho Hynes,Adam Reynolds,Cameron Munster and Ryan Matterson.

Nicho Hynes,Adam Reynolds,Cameron Munster and Ryan Matterson.Getty

The Cowboys have been disappointing to date and nowReuben Cotter (knee) will joinScott Drinkwater (suspension) on the sidelines. Another loss forTodd Payten’s men and their season will start slipping away. The Titans have won only one of their past 11 games in Townsville and that record is about to get worse.Cowboys by 8.
Adrian Proszenko

Rabbitohs (10) v Sea Eagles (3)

Saturday,7.35pm,Accor Stadium

South Sydney will need to channel their innerJohn Sattler to win this one. They are seriously lacking some forwards,and one of Manly’s strengths is their big,mobile pack.

Phil Gould and Paul Gallen had towering words for John Sattler after the rugby league legend's death.

Tom Burgess,Davvy Moale andDavid Suluka-Fifita need to be ready for lengthy stints. The Sea Eagles’ left edge will need to be on against Souths’ brilliant right,withKeaon Koloamatangi andCampbell Graham two of the form back-rowers and centres in the game right now. Theemotion surrounding Sattler might be enough to get the hosts home.Rabbitohs by 2.
Christian Nicolussi

Warriors (4) v Bulldogs (8)

Sunday,2pm,Mt Smart Stadium

Not since 2018 have the Warriors been sitting in the top four any later in the season than round one,and they deserve to be there after upsetting the Cowboys on their own turf.

New Bulldogs coach Cameron Ciraldo.

New Bulldogs coach Cameron Ciraldo.Louie Douvis

It’s early doors still of course but rookie coachAndrew Webster hasShaun Johnson andTe Maire Martin yinning and yanging smoothly at the scrum base while ultra-consistent captainTohu Harris has been exactly that and one of the best forwards in the competition to date. With 10 times the eyeballs on him,Cameron Ciraldo is off to a very promising start at Belmore too.Jacob Kiraz andPaul Alamoti are showing how bright their future is out wide,though newsTevita Pangai jnr is facing up to another month out highlights the strain on Canterbury’s middle stocks at the moment. At home,the Warriors’ own underrated forwards have the edge. Warriors by four.
Dan Walsh

Knights (14) v Raiders (11)

Sunday,4.05pm,McDonald Jones Stadium

No team has a worse recent record at McDonald Jones Stadium than Newcastle. Once a fortress,the Knights have won only one of their past 12 matches at home.

Dom Young (right) has been dropped by Newcastle.

Dom Young (right) has been dropped by Newcastle.NRL Photos

The task of reversing the trend has been made more difficult after they dropped their most potent weapon,Dom Young,who had scored 12 tries in his last 11 games at the ground. Both teams get a big man back for this game:Josh Papali’i returns for the Raiders,whileDaniel Saifiti is back for Newcastle.Tyson Frizell,named on an extended bench,could potentially further bolster the Knights pack,but there are still too many troops out to spring an upset. Raiders by 8.
Adrian Proszenko

Dragons (9) v Sharks (12)

Sunday,6.15pm,Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Hard to imagine this years ago,but relegated to the third-best rivalry match of the round and in the dreaded Sunday night slot. Both teams are coming off losses,but there’s a huge return for the Sharks with Dally M Medal winnerNicho Hynes (calf) to play his first game of the season.Matt Moylan has retained his place in the halves withBraydon Trindall,outstanding in the first three weeks,back on the bench. Still noJack de Belin (calf) for the Dragons,withToby Couchman named on the bench after missing last week due to a concussion in his NRL debut. The Sharks have won their last five against the Dragons and seven of their last eight spanning back to 2019.Sharks by 6.
Adam Pengilly

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Adam Pengilly is a sports reporter for The Sydney Morning Herald.

Christian Nicolussi covers rugby league for The Sydney Morning Herald.

Dan Walsh is a sports reporter for the Sydney Morning Herald.

Adrian Proszenko is the Chief Rugby League Reporter for the Sydney Morning Herald.

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