Resolve director Jim Reed said there were no signs that campaigning,including adoptingYou’re the Voice sung by John Farnham as the cause’s anthem,had boosted voter support for the change to the Constitution.
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“If anything,the campaign is having the opposite effect because the No vote is still growing,” he said.
“The more people engage in the debate,and the more they consider the proposal,the more they are put off.
“The comments we collect from respondents are becoming more exasperated and frustrated in their tone as the campaign wears on. Many people seem impatient for this to be over,especially those who see it as a diversion or divisive.”
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1604 eligible voters about the wording proposed by the government in the referendum bill passed by parliament to change the Constitution to recognise First Australians by establishing the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. The questions were asked from Wednesday to Saturday,days after the launch of the Yes advertising campaign using Farnham’s song,and the results have a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.
While the national figures are based on the September survey,the state-by-state results combine the August and September surveys to build a bigger base of 3207 respondents and produce more reliable results for smaller states.
The No vote has gained ground in each state and is strongest in Queensland and Western Australia,with 61 per cent against the change,followed by South Australia (59 per cent against),NSW (56 per cent against) and Victoria (51 per cent against).
While the survey suggests Tasmania supports the change,with 56 per cent in favour and 44 per cent against,this is based on a small sample size to reflect the state’s relatively small population,leading to a bigger margin of error.
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“Every poll has a margin of error,but we are sure of the national result being No and of the same result in four of the six states because they are outside that margin,” Reed said.
“The Yes campaign need four states to win,but we only have them ahead in one,[Tasmania] and it’s a result that we’re not certain about either.”
Albanese,who returns to federal parliament on Monday after a week overseas at the G20 and other leadership summits,has assured Australians he is acting on domestic priorities such as the cost of living.
Voters cut their support for Labor from 37 to 36 per cent over the past month,while they increased the Coalition’s primary vote from 33 to 34 per cent.
The Greens increased their primary vote from 11 to 12 per cent,while support for independents slipped from 10 to 9 per cent.
While the changes in core support were all within the margin of error for the September survey,the Labor primary vote has fallen from 42 per cent since the May budget,while the Coalition primary vote has increased from 30 per cent over the same period.
When voters were asked about the prime minister’s performance,40 per cent said he was doing a good job and 47 per cent said he was doing a poor job,with the remainder undecided. This resulted in a net performance rating of minus 7 per cent,down from a positive rating of 2 per cent one month ago. His net rating was 35 percentage points in January.
The trend has improved Dutton’s standing on this personal measure,with 35 per cent saying he was doing a good job and 43 per cent saying he was doing a poor job. This resulted in a net performance rating of minus eight per cent,compared to minus 17 percentage points in January.
Support for the Voice among Labor voters has fallen from 75 per cent in April to 69 per cent in May and 64 per cent in August,before slipping to 60 per cent in September.
Support has fallen slightly among Greens voters,with 81 per cent in favour in June but 78 per cent in favour in September,and it has fallen among Coalition voters from 26 per cent in June to 16 per cent in September. This means 84 per cent of Coalition voters are now on the No side.