Retail icon David Jones has enjoyed a post-pandemic bump in sales and earnings.

Retail icon David Jones has enjoyed a post-pandemic bump in sales and earnings.Credit:Kate Geraghty

During a recent results webcast to investors,Woolworths chief executive Roy Bagattini was particularly positive about the prospects for Australian retail generally and consumer demand for discretionary sales.

He believes the billions of dollars that Australians stashed in their bank accounts during COVID has fortified consumers against rising interest rates and inflation and the impact this would normally have on retail spending.

He isn’t alone in his views. Myer boss John King was pretty upbeat when in July he provided a trading update for his department store chain. Not only is Myer staring down the barrel of 160 per cent improvement in second-half profit (to July) but he mentioned nothing about experiencing a slowdown.

Sure,there are indications from various economic data that there is some slowing in retail sales,but it still appears to be holding up quite well and seems nowhere near the edge of any cliff.

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This is despite five consecutive interest rate rises since May - an outcome that suggests a serious latency between higher rates and the zipping up of purses.

It could be that Woolworths Holdings (not to be confused with Australia’s supermarket group) is looking to capitalise on David Jones’ more positive earnings profile to delete it from the portfolio of other retail assets it owns back home and in Australia - which includes the Country Road group.

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The structural decline in higher end department stores over more than a decade is well documented. They are not necessarily retail’s dinosaurs but they are poorly structured to deal with the way people currently shop as online grabs an increasing portion of the distribution channel.

Put simply,both David Jones and Myer have too much space and too many stores. Both understand the problem and have been working hard to address it.

But both have one hand behind their backs as long-dated lease commitments,which were entered into before the digital revolution,have allowed them limited room to manoeuvre.

The appeal for any buyer of David Jones would be that between maybe 5 and 10 years,a decent number of these leases will begin to roll off. Myer’s lease profile is still arduous with 36 of its stores still under contract for more than eight years.

Australia’s most patient retailer is Solomon Lew. He has already been linked with the David Jones sales process and while not denying that he has spoken to Woolworths,there is some question mark as to who approached who.

Mining billionaire/hydrogen hero Andrew Forrest’s name has also found its way into the public arena as a potential buyer for David Jones. His private company has acquired a diverse range of businesses including RM Williams,but it is not at all certain that Forrest has thrown his hat into the ring for David Jones.

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But Lew is a more pivotal player in the way the department store ownership changes in the near to medium term.

If any player (including Lew) wants to work on some kind of merger between these two department store groups,his 22 per cent stake in Myer gives him some leverage.

(And history has shown that no one is better than Lew at using leverage for positioning.)

A change in this sector has a long way to play out,but the sale of David Jones represents the firing of the starter gun.

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